Friday, 09/10/2026 at 20:30
5d 21h to kick-offBorussia Dortmund – SV Werder Bremen
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:22
What the model expects
- Borussia Dortmund
- 52%
- Draw
- 29%
- SV Werder Bremen
- 19%
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | SV Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.92 | 3.46 | 5.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Borussia Dortmund
- Model
- 52.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 69.4%
- Probability gap
- −17.4 pp
- Edge
- −29.1%
- Fair odds
- 1.92
- Market odds
- 1.36 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.02
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 18.0%
- Probability gap
- +10.9 pp
- Edge
- +51.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.46
- Market odds
- 5.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.64
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
-
SV Werder Bremen
- Model
- 19.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 12.6%
- Probability gap
- +6.6 pp
- Edge
- +43.8%
- Fair odds
- 5.22
- Market odds
- 7.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.48
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
Outcomes with value
Borussia Dortmund not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
SV Werder Bremen to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Borussia Dortmund not to score
Model 17.3% vs. bookmaker 8.7%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
52% Borussia Dortmund to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 4th
- Borussia Dortmund attack v SV Werder Bremen defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 16th
- Borussia Dortmund defence v SV Werder Bremen attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs -0.60
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.62 – 0.95
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Werder Bremen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Borussia Dortmund | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches | 1.33 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches | 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches | -0.22 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.16 · 10th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | -0.60 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
- 35%
- Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 10.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · SV Werder Bremen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.