Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:30
18d 5h to kick-offBorussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt
Model updated 6 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Borussia Dortmund
- 59%
- Draw
- 25%
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 16%
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.70 | 3.97 | 6.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
59% Borussia Dortmund to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 12th
- Borussia Dortmund attack v Eintracht Frankfurt defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 13th
- Borussia Dortmund defence v Eintracht Frankfurt attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs +0.03
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.92 – 0.99
- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 1.98 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches | 2.05 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches | -0.07 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | +0.03 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
- 34%
- Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.6%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.