Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 17:30
33d 21h to kick-offSC Freiburg – 1. FC Union Berlin
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SC Freiburg
- 56%
- Draw
- 25%
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 18%
| SC Freiburg | Draw | 1. FC Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.78 | 3.94 | 5.43 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SC Freiburg
56% SC Freiburg to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 13th
- SC Freiburg attack v 1. FC Union Berlin defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 15th
- SC Freiburg defence v 1. FC Union Berlin attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.64 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.95 – 1.11
- SC Freiburg v 1. FC Union Berlin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SC Freiburg | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.22 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.13 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.91 · 2nd from 4 matches | 2.70 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.31 · 3rd from 4 matches | -1.57 · 18th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.26 · 3rd from 4 matches | 0.70 · 18th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.64 | -0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- SC Freiburg clean sheet
- 30%
- SC Freiburg 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Freiburg sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FC Union Berlin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SC Freiburg
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FC Union Berlin
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.