Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:30
13d 14h to kick-off1. FC Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 27%
- Draw
- 29%
- Borussia Dortmund
- 44%
| 1. FC Union Berlin | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.77 | 3.41 | 2.26 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
44% Borussia Dortmund to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 13th
- Borussia Dortmund attack v 1. FC Union Berlin defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 15th
- Borussia Dortmund defence v 1. FC Union Berlin attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.20 – 1.57
- 1. FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FC Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.13 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.70 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.57 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.70 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.35 | (better) +1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
- 27%
- Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 1:2
- 10.9%
- 2:1
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Union Berlin sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FC Union Berlin
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.