Friday, 06/11/2026 at 20:30
33d 18h to kick-offHamburger SV – Borussia M'gladbach
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hamburger SV
- 42%
- Draw
- 28%
- Borussia M'gladbach
- 30%
| Hamburger SV | Draw | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.41 | 3.54 | 3.30 |
- Total goals
- 3.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Hamburger SV
42% Hamburger SV to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 16th
- Hamburger SV attack v Borussia M'gladbach defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 12th
- Hamburger SV defence v Borussia M'gladbach attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.73 vs -1.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.39
- Hamburger SV v Borussia M'gladbach
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hamburger SV | Borussia M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 1.72 · joint 10th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches | 2.92 · 18th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches | -1.20 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 0.83 · 15th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.73 | -1.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Hamburger SV clean sheet
- 22%
- Hamburger SV 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.5%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia M'gladbach sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Borussia M'gladbach
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.