Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:30
20d 14h to kick-off1. FC Köln – FC Schalke 04
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FC Köln
- 57%
- Draw
- 24%
- FC Schalke 04
- 19%
| 1. FC Köln | Draw | FC Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.77 | 4.17 | 5.15 |
- Total goals
- 3.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans 1. FC Köln
57% 1. FC Köln to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 15th
- 1. FC Köln attack v FC Schalke 04 defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 14th
- 1. FC Köln defence v FC Schalke 04 attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.39 vs -0.78
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 2.12 – 1.26
- 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FC Köln | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.97 · 7th from 4 matches | 1.32 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.98 · 10th from 4 matches | 2.11 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.01 · 8th from 4 matches | -0.79 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.40 · 8th from 4 matches | 0.92 · 14th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.39 | -0.78 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FC Köln clean sheet
- 25%
- 1. FC Köln 2+ goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:1
- 10.8%
- 3:1
- 7.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Köln sample
- 20 matches
- FC Schalke 04 sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FC Köln
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Schalke 04
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- FC Schalke 04 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.