Bundesliga

Bundesliga results 2026/2027

Every Bundesliga match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

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Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 27 matches (44%). The probabilities implied about 13 (49%). Brier score 0.61 (reference 0.64; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

1 match

15:30

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2

RB Leipzig 0

xG 2.27 – 0.97 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 19/09/2026

1 match

15:30

SV Werder Bremen 3

FC Augsburg 2

xG 2.78 – 1.12 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Friday, 18/09/2026

1 match

20:30

FC Bayern München 7

1. FC Union Berlin 0

xG 3.71 – 0.34 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Sunday, 13/09/2026

2 matches

17:30

SV 07 Elversberg 1

FC Bayern München 2

xG 0.94 – 2.83 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

RB Leipzig 5

Hamburger SV 0

xG 2.43 – 1.10 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 12/09/2026

3 matches

15:30

SC Freiburg 5

Borussia M'gladbach 0

xG 2.60 – 0.19 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

Borussia Dortmund 3

SC Paderborn 07 0

xG 1.76 – 0.49 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

TSG Hoffenheim 2

VfB Stuttgart 1

xG 2.76 – 2.16 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

20:30

1. FC Union Berlin 1

FC Schalke 04 3

xG 1.95 – 2.52 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Sunday, 06/09/2026

1 match

15:30

Hamburger SV 0

1. FSV Mainz 05 5

xG 0.19 – 2.77 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

→

Saturday, 05/09/2026

2 matches

15:30

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4

1. FC Union Berlin 0

xG 3.11 – 0.39 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

TSG Hoffenheim 2

Borussia Dortmund 3

xG 1.17 – 2.02 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Friday, 04/09/2026

1 match

20:30

VfB Stuttgart 4

1. FC Köln 1

xG 3.47 – 2.86 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Sunday, 30/08/2026

2 matches

17:30

FC Augsburg 3

FC Schalke 04 0

xG 3.52 – 1.54 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

SC Freiburg 4

SV Werder Bremen 1

xG 1.94 – 0.48 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 29/08/2026

2 matches

18:30

Borussia Dortmund 2

Hamburger SV 0

xG 1.53 – 0.91 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

RB Leipzig 3

Borussia M'gladbach 0

xG 3.96 – 1.09 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Friday, 28/08/2026

1 match

20:30

FC Bayern München 5

VfB Stuttgart 1

xG 4.06 – 0.79 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.