Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:30
4d 22h to kick-offRB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- RB Leipzig
- 62%
- Draw
- 22%
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 16%
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.62 | 4.51 | 6.28 |
- Total goals
- 3.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
RB Leipzig
- Model
- 61.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 61.8%
- Probability gap
- +0.1 pp
- Edge
- −7.1%
- Fair odds
- 1.62
- Market odds
- 1.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.70
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
Draw
- Model
- 22.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.6%
- Probability gap
- +1.6 pp
- Edge
- −0.2%
- Fair odds
- 4.51
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
Eintracht Frankfurt
- Model
- 15.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 17.6%
- Probability gap
- −1.7 pp
- Edge
- −16.4%
- Fair odds
- 6.28
- Market odds
- 5.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.60
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
Outcomes with value
RB Leipzig at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
RB Leipzig at most 1 goal
Model 31.6% vs. bookmaker 29.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans RB Leipzig
62% RB Leipzig to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 12th
- RB Leipzig attack v Eintracht Frankfurt defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 13th
- RB Leipzig defence v Eintracht Frankfurt attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.64 vs +0.03
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.26 – 1.17
- RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.22 · 5th from 4 matches | 1.98 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.35 · 5th from 4 matches | 2.05 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.86 · 4th from 4 matches | -0.07 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.85 · 5th from 4 matches | 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.64 | +0.03 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- RB Leipzig clean sheet
- 28%
- RB Leipzig 2+ goals
- 68%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:1
- 10.0%
- 3:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RB Leipzig sample
- 20 matches
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · RB Leipzig
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.