Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
3d 11h to kick-offBlackburn Rovers – Stoke City
- Blackburn Rovers
- 41%
- Fair 2.41 Fair odds 2.41
- Draw
- 32%
- Fair 3.11 Fair odds 3.11
- Stoke City
- 26%
- Fair 3.78 Fair odds 3.78
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Blackburn Rovers 20/20
- Stoke City 20/20
- Model updated 31 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
- D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 0.15 created, 1.89 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.82 created, 3.68 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.53 created, 1.69 conceded against Wrexham
- W 1.50 created, 0.39 conceded against Watford
- W 0.54 created, 0.48 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 0.74 created, 3.13 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.65 created, 2.57 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 0.56 created, 0.99 conceded against Derby County
- D 0.67 created, 0.78 conceded against Bristol City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals
- 39%
- Blackburn Rovers clean sheet
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:0
- 10.1%
Why the model favours Blackburn Rovers
Home advantage carries the lean to Blackburn Rovers: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Blackburn Rovers.
- Attack
- Favours Stoke City
- 21st vs 18th
- Blackburn Rovers attack v Stoke City defence
- Defence
- Favours Blackburn Rovers
- 20th vs 24th
- Blackburn Rovers defence v Stoke City attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Stoke City
- -0.81 vs -0.61
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Blackburn Rovers | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.03 · 21st | 0.88 · 24th |
| xGA / match | 1.72 · 22nd | (better) 1.63 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.69 · 21st | -0.75 · 23rd |
| xPts / match | 0.92 · 23rd | (better) 0.94 · 22nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.81 | (better) -0.61 |
Head to head
Blackburn Rovers 0 Draws 2 Stoke City 0
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Blackburn Rovers
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Stoke City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.