Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 16:00
22d 7h to kick-offBolton Wanderers – Portsmouth
- Bolton Wanderers
- 34%
- Fair 2.98 Fair odds 2.98
- Draw
- 32%
- Fair 3.11 Fair odds 3.11
- Portsmouth
- 34%
- Fair 2.92 Fair odds 2.92
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Bolton Wanderers 12/20
- Portsmouth 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
- L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
- W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
- D 1.22 created, 1.87 conceded against Southampton
- L 0.91 created, 4.17 conceded against Middlesbrough
- D 1.60 created, 0.59 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 1.18 created, 1.28 conceded against Southampton
- W 2.22 created, 2.01 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 1.19 created, 0.29 conceded against Norwich City
- D 0.65 created, 1.01 conceded against Wolverhampton
- W 0.82 created, 0.67 conceded against Millwall
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- Portsmouth 2+ goals
- 35%
- Portsmouth clean sheet
- 27%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
Why the model leans Portsmouth, but not by much
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Portsmouth.
- Attack
- Favours Portsmouth
- 16th vs 18th
- Portsmouth attack v Bolton Wanderers defence
- Defence
- Favours Portsmouth
- 3rd vs 9th
- Portsmouth defence v Bolton Wanderers attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Portsmouth
- +0.30 vs -0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bolton Wanderers | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.36 · 11th | 1.31 · 14th |
| xGA / match | 1.90 · 24th | (better) 1.13 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.55 · 19th | (better) +0.18 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 1.06 · 19th | (better) 1.51 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.51 | (better) +0.30 |
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 12 matches
- Portsmouth sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bolton Wanderers
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Portsmouth
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.