Lincoln City – Birmingham City prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 13:30 Sat 31 October, 13:30

1d 5h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Lincoln City Home 15th in Championship

1.18

Birmingham City Away tied 7th in Championship

1.28 Projected xG

Lincoln City: 32%; Mkt 28% Market 28%; Fair 3.17 Fair odds 3.17
Draw: 32%; Mkt 27% Market 27%; Fair 3.14 Fair odds 3.14
Birmingham City: 37%; Mkt 45% Market 45%; Fair 2.73 Fair odds 2.73

No qualified edge

The largest edge is Draw at +11.5%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: No proven skill. How this is decided →

Data coverage · partial

Lincoln City 12/20
Birmingham City 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 06:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Draw Match result

Edge +11.5%

Model 31.9%

Market 26.8%

Fair odds 3.14 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: -1.04%
Birmingham City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +4.2%

Model 62.5%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.60 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: +2.61%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +3.6%

Model 54.3%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.84 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Lincoln City to score Goals by team

Edge +1.1%

Model 72.2%

Market 66.3%

Fair odds 1.38 Bookmaker odds 1.40

Model skill: +3.77%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +11.5%

Model 31.9%

Market 26.8%

Fair odds 3.14 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: -1.04%
Lincoln City to win Match result

Edge +4.1%

Model 31.6%

Market 28.5%

Fair odds 3.17 Bookmaker odds 3.30

Model skill: +7.19%
Birmingham City to win Match result

Edge -23.2%

Model 36.6%

Market 44.7%

Fair odds 2.73 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: +7.20%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 31.9%
Market, margin removed: 26.8%

Probability gap: +5.0 pp
Edge: +11.5%
Fair odds: 3.14
Market odds: 3.50 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.30
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Lincoln City to win

Model: 31.6%
Market, margin removed: 28.5%

Probability gap: +3.1 pp
Edge: +4.1%
Fair odds: 3.17
Market odds: 3.30 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.33
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Birmingham City to win

Model: 36.6%
Market, margin removed: 44.7%

Probability gap: −8.1 pp
Edge: −23.2%
Fair odds: 2.73
Market odds: 2.10 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.87
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +3.6%

Model 54.3%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.84 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -2.7%

Model 74.9%

Market 72.9%

Fair odds 1.34 Bookmaker odds 1.30

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -12.0%

Model 25.1%

Market 27.1%

Fair odds 3.98 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -12.7%

Model 45.7%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 2.19 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -3.3%

Model 56.0%

Market 53.7%

Fair odds 1.79 Bookmaker odds 1.73

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -12.0%

Model 44.0%

Market 46.3%

Fair odds 2.27 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Birmingham City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +4.2%

Model 62.5%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.60 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: +2.61%
Lincoln City to score Goals by team

Edge +1.1%

Model 72.2%

Market 66.3%

Fair odds 1.38 Bookmaker odds 1.40

Model skill: +3.77%
Birmingham City not to score Goals by team

Edge -6.1%

Model 25.0%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 3.99 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +2.56%
Birmingham City to score Goals by team

Edge -6.3%

Model 75.0%

Market 75.0%

Fair odds 1.33 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: +2.56%
Lincoln City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -7.1%

Model 66.4%

Market 66.3%

Fair odds 1.51 Bookmaker odds 1.40

Model skill: +3.62%
Lincoln City 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -7.5%

Model 33.6%

Market 33.7%

Fair odds 2.97 Bookmaker odds 2.75

Model skill: +3.62%
Birmingham City 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -21.3%

Model 37.5%

Market 44.3%

Fair odds 2.67 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: +2.61%
Lincoln City not to score Goals by team

Edge -23.6%

Model 27.8%

Market 33.7%

Fair odds 3.60 Bookmaker odds 2.75

Model skill: +3.77%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lincoln City xG 1.17 xGA 1.75

W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
L 0.35 created, 3.20 conceded against West Ham United
D 0.73 created, 1.84 conceded against Millwall
W 1.90 created, 2.35 conceded against Burnley

Birmingham City xG 1.90 xGA 1.38

W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County
D 1.23 created, 2.14 conceded against Middlesbrough
W 2.55 created, 1.05 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 2.24 created, 0.49 conceded against Preston North End
W 1.30 created, 1.15 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.89 created, 2.36 conceded against Cardiff City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.47
Over 2.5 goals: 46%
Both teams to score: 56%
Birmingham City 2+ goals: 37%
Birmingham City clean sheet: 28%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 16.3%
1:2: 9.6%
0:0: 8.8%

Why the model leans Birmingham City, but not by much

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Birmingham City.

Attack: Favours Birmingham City; 8th vs 14th; Birmingham City attack v Lincoln City defence
Defence: Favours Birmingham City; 7th vs 17th; Birmingham City defence v Lincoln City attack
Recent xG form: Favours Birmingham City; +0.51 vs -0.59; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Lincoln City and Birmingham City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Lincoln City	Birmingham City
xG / match	1.30 · 15th	(better) 1.69 · 7th
xGA / match	1.45 · 12th	(better) 1.33 · 11th
xGD / match	-0.15 · 15th	(better) +0.37 · 7th
xPts / match	1.35 · 13th	(better) 1.64 · 6th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.59	(better) +0.51

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Lincoln City and Birmingham City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Lincoln City	Birmingham City
xG / match	1.30 · 15th	(better) 1.69 · 7th
npxG / match	1.14	(better) 1.56
Shots / match	12.3 · joint 16th	(better) 13.2 · 13th
npxG / shot	0.09 · 15th	(better) 0.12 · 3rd

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Lincoln City and Birmingham City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Lincoln City	Birmingham City
xGA / match	1.45 · 12th	(better) 1.33 · 11th
Shots faced / match	15.7 · 19th	(better) 12.1 · joint 9th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.09 · 5th	0.10 · 18th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Lincoln City and Birmingham City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Lincoln City	Birmingham City
Last 6 xG / match	1.17	(better) 1.90
Last 6 xGA / match	1.75	(better) 1.38
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.59	(better) +0.51

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Lincoln City to win

31.6% 3.17 —

Draw

31.9% 3.14 —

Birmingham City to win

36.6% 2.73 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

74.9% 1.34 —

Under 1.5 goals

25.1% 3.98 —

Over 2.5 goals

45.7% 2.19 —

Under 2.5 goals

54.3% 1.84 —

Both teams to score

56.0% 1.79 —

Both teams not to score

44.0% 2.27 —

Team goals — Lincoln City

Lincoln City to score

72.2% 1.38 —

Lincoln City not to score

27.8% 3.60 —

Lincoln City 2+ goals

33.6% 2.97 —

Lincoln City at most 1 goal

66.4% 1.51 —

Team goals — Birmingham City

Birmingham City to score

75.0% 1.33 —

Birmingham City not to score

25.0% 3.99 —

Birmingham City 2+ goals

37.5% 2.67 —

Birmingham City at most 1 goal

62.5% 1.60 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lincoln City xG 1.17 xGA 1.75

W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
L 0.35 created, 3.20 conceded against West Ham United
D 0.73 created, 1.84 conceded against Millwall
W 1.90 created, 2.35 conceded against Burnley

Birmingham City xG 1.90 xGA 1.38

W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County
D 1.23 created, 2.14 conceded against Middlesbrough
W 2.55 created, 1.05 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 2.24 created, 0.49 conceded against Preston North End
W 1.30 created, 1.15 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.89 created, 2.36 conceded against Cardiff City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model leans Birmingham City, but not by much

Team comparison

Lincoln City attack → Birmingham City defence

Birmingham City attack → Lincoln City defence

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Lincoln City

Team goals — Birmingham City

What the model doesn't know