Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

1d 5h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Middlesbrough Home 1st in Championship

2.46

Charlton Athletic Away 19th in Championship

0.81 Projected xG

Middlesbrough: 74%; Mkt 75% Market 75%; Fair 1.35 Fair odds 1.35
Draw: 18%; Mkt 16% Market 16%; Fair 5.57 Fair odds 5.57
Charlton Athletic: 8%; Mkt 9% Market 9%; Fair 12.95 Fair odds 12.95

No qualified edge

The largest edge is Draw at +7.7%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: No proven skill. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Middlesbrough 20/20
Charlton Athletic 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 09:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Draw Match result

Edge +7.7%

Model 17.9%

Market 15.6%

Fair odds 5.57 Bookmaker odds 6.00

Model skill: -1.04%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +7.7%

Model 17.9%

Market 15.6%

Fair odds 5.57 Bookmaker odds 6.00

Model skill: -1.04%
Middlesbrough to win Match result

Edge -7.1%

Model 74.3%

Market 75.0%

Fair odds 1.35 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: +7.19%
Charlton Athletic to win Match result

Edge -22.8%

Model 7.7%

Market 9.4%

Fair odds 12.96 Bookmaker odds 10.00

Model skill: +7.20%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 17.9%
Market, margin removed: 15.6%

Probability gap: +2.3 pp
Edge: +7.7%
Fair odds: 5.57
Market odds: 6.00 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 5.85
Bookmaker margin: 6.7%

Middlesbrough to win

Model: 74.3%
Market, margin removed: 75.0%

Probability gap: −0.7 pp
Edge: −7.1%
Fair odds: 1.35
Market odds: 1.25 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 1.41
Bookmaker margin: 6.7%

Charlton Athletic to win

Model: 7.7%
Market, margin removed: 9.4%

Probability gap: −1.7 pp
Edge: −22.8%
Fair odds: 12.96
Market odds: 10.00 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 13.60
Bookmaker margin: 6.7%

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -2.1%

Model 87.0%

Market 84.2%

Fair odds 1.15 Bookmaker odds 1.13

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -5.1%

Model 34.5%

Market 34.4%

Fair odds 2.90 Bookmaker odds 2.75

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -5.5%

Model 65.5%

Market 65.6%

Fair odds 1.53 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -22.1%

Model 13.0%

Market 15.8%

Fair odds 7.70 Bookmaker odds 6.00

Model skill: -0.01%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -0.2%

Model 55.5%

Market 51.5%

Fair odds 1.80 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -15.0%

Model 44.5%

Market 48.5%

Fair odds 2.24 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Charlton Athletic at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -2.3%

Model 81.4%

Market 78.3%

Fair odds 1.23 Bookmaker odds 1.20

Model skill: +2.61%
Middlesbrough to score Goals by team

Edge -2.3%

Model 93.1%

Market 91.3%

Fair odds 1.07 Bookmaker odds 1.05

Model skill: +3.77%
Charlton Athletic to score Goals by team

Edge -2.5%

Model 58.5%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.71 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: +2.56%
Middlesbrough at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -5.1%

Model 27.1%

Market 26.9%

Fair odds 3.69 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -6.3%

Model 72.9%

Market 73.1%

Fair odds 1.37 Bookmaker odds 1.29

Model skill: +3.62%
Charlton Athletic not to score Goals by team

Edge -12.8%

Model 41.5%

Market 44.3%

Fair odds 2.41 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: +2.56%
Charlton Athletic 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -19.5%

Model 18.6%

Market 21.7%

Fair odds 5.38 Bookmaker odds 4.33

Model skill: +2.61%
Middlesbrough not to score Goals by team

Edge -23.6%

Model 6.9%

Market 8.7%

Fair odds 14.40 Bookmaker odds 11.00

Model skill: +3.77%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Middlesbrough xG 2.34 xGA 1.00

D 1.52 created, 1.69 conceded against Millwall
D 2.14 created, 1.23 conceded against Birmingham City
W 0.90 created, 0.68 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 2.57 created, 0.65 conceded against Stoke City
D 2.71 created, 0.85 conceded against Cardiff City
W 4.17 created, 0.91 conceded against Bolton Wanderers

Charlton Athletic xG 1.34 xGA 1.67

D 0.82 created, 0.40 conceded against Portsmouth
L 1.26 created, 2.60 conceded against Cardiff City
D 1.78 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
D 2.13 created, 1.08 conceded against Burnley
L 1.25 created, 2.78 conceded against Watford
L 0.79 created, 1.69 conceded against Norwich City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 3.26
Over 2.5 goals: 65%
Both teams to score: 55%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals: 73%
Middlesbrough clean sheet: 42%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.

2:0: 11.4%
2:1: 10.9%
3:0: 9.6%

Why the model favours Middlesbrough

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Middlesbrough.

Attack: Favours Middlesbrough; 1st vs 22nd; Middlesbrough attack v Charlton Athletic defence
Defence: Favours Middlesbrough; 2nd vs 23rd; Middlesbrough defence v Charlton Athletic attack
Recent xG form: Favours Middlesbrough; +1.33 vs -0.33; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Middlesbrough and Charlton Athletic compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Middlesbrough	Charlton Athletic
xG / match	(better) 2.16 · 1st	0.99 · 22nd
xGA / match	(better) 1.02 · 2nd	1.58 · 18th
xGD / match	(better) +1.15 · 1st	-0.60 · 20th
xPts / match	(better) 2.10 · 1st	0.97 · 21st
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +1.33	-0.33

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Middlesbrough and Charlton Athletic compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Middlesbrough	Charlton Athletic
xG / match	(better) 2.16 · 1st	0.99 · 22nd
npxG / match	(better) 2.18	1.02
Shots / match	(better) 20.1 · 1st	10.0 · 24th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.11 · 4th	0.10 · 8th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Middlesbrough and Charlton Athletic compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Middlesbrough	Charlton Athletic
xGA / match	(better) 1.02 · 2nd	1.58 · 18th
Shots faced / match	(better) 11.1 · 4th	17.0 · 23rd
npxGA / shot	0.09 · 7th	(better) 0.08 · 2nd

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Middlesbrough and Charlton Athletic compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Middlesbrough	Charlton Athletic
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 2.34	1.34
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.00	1.67
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +1.33	-0.33

Head to head

Middlesbrough 1 Draws 0 Charlton Athletic 1

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Middlesbrough to win

74.3% 1.35 —

Draw

17.9% 5.57 —

Charlton Athletic to win

7.7% 12.95 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

87.0% 1.15 —

Under 1.5 goals

13.0% 7.70 —

Over 2.5 goals

65.5% 1.53 —

Under 2.5 goals

34.5% 2.90 —

Both teams to score

55.5% 1.80 —

Both teams not to score

44.5% 2.24 —

Team goals — Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough to score

93.1% 1.07 —

Middlesbrough not to score

6.9% 14.40 —

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

72.9% 1.37 —

Middlesbrough at most 1 goal

27.1% 3.69 —

Team goals — Charlton Athletic

Charlton Athletic to score

58.5% 1.71 —

Charlton Athletic not to score

41.5% 2.41 —

Charlton Athletic 2+ goals

18.6% 5.38 —

Charlton Athletic at most 1 goal

81.4% 1.23 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Middlesbrough xG 2.34 xGA 1.00

D 1.52 created, 1.69 conceded against Millwall
D 2.14 created, 1.23 conceded against Birmingham City
W 0.90 created, 0.68 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 2.57 created, 0.65 conceded against Stoke City
D 2.71 created, 0.85 conceded against Cardiff City
W 4.17 created, 0.91 conceded against Bolton Wanderers

Charlton Athletic xG 1.34 xGA 1.67

D 0.82 created, 0.40 conceded against Portsmouth
L 1.26 created, 2.60 conceded against Cardiff City
D 1.78 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
D 2.13 created, 1.08 conceded against Burnley
L 1.25 created, 2.78 conceded against Watford
L 0.79 created, 1.69 conceded against Norwich City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Middlesbrough 1 Draws 0 Charlton Athletic 1

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Middlesbrough

Team comparison

Middlesbrough attack → Charlton Athletic defence

Charlton Athletic attack → Middlesbrough defence

Head to head

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Middlesbrough

Team goals — Charlton Athletic

What the model doesn't know