Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
29d 9h to kick-offMillwall – Burnley
- Millwall
- 51%
- Fair 1.95 Fair odds 1.95
- Draw
- 28%
- Fair 3.61 Fair odds 3.61
- Burnley
- 21%
- Fair 4.77 Fair odds 4.77
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Millwall 20/20
- Burnley 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- D 1.69 created, 1.52 conceded against Middlesbrough
- D 2.68 created, 1.87 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.09 created, 0.65 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.05 created, 1.83 conceded against Swansea City
- D 1.84 created, 0.73 conceded against Lincoln City
- L 0.67 created, 0.82 conceded against Portsmouth
- L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
- D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
- W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
- D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 2.35 created, 1.90 conceded against Lincoln City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- Millwall 2+ goals
- 54%
- Millwall clean sheet
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.9%
Why the model favours Millwall
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Millwall.
- Attack
- Favours Millwall
- 6th vs 16th
- Millwall attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- Favours Millwall
- 9th vs 11th
- Millwall defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Millwall
- +0.27 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Millwall | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.75 · 5th | 1.32 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.32 · 9th | 1.65 · 20th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.43 · 6th | -0.33 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.63 · 7th | 1.11 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.27 | -0.39 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Millwall sample
- 20 matches
- Burnley sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Millwall
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Burnley
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.