Millwall – Derby County prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

4h 55m to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Millwall Home 13th in Championship

1.79

Derby County Away 23rd in Championship

0.99 Projected xG

Millwall: 55%; Mkt 57% Market 57%; Fair 1.81 Fair odds 1.81
Draw: 27%; Mkt 25% Market 25%; Fair 3.72 Fair odds 3.72
Derby County: 18%; Mkt 19% Market 19%; Fair 5.58 Fair odds 5.58

No qualified edge

The largest edge is Both teams to score at +4.0%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: No proven skill. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Millwall 20/20
Derby County 20/20

Model updated 31 October, 09:30
Top odds updated 31 October, 06:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +4.0%

Model 57.8%

Market 51.5%

Fair odds 1.73 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: -0.43%
Draw Match result

Edge +2.0%

Model 26.9%

Market 24.6%

Fair odds 3.72 Bookmaker odds 3.80

Model skill: -1.04%
Derby County to score Goals by team

Edge +0.8%

Model 65.8%

Market 60.8%

Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: +2.56%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +0.6%

Model 80.5%

Market 76.2%

Fair odds 1.24 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: -0.01%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +2.0%

Model 26.9%

Market 24.6%

Fair odds 3.72 Bookmaker odds 3.80

Model skill: -1.04%
Millwall to win Match result

Edge -8.9%

Model 55.2%

Market 56.7%

Fair odds 1.81 Bookmaker odds 1.65

Model skill: +7.19%
Derby County to win Match result

Edge -10.4%

Model 17.9%

Market 18.7%

Fair odds 5.58 Bookmaker odds 5.00

Model skill: +7.20%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 26.9%
Market, margin removed: 24.6%

Probability gap: +2.2 pp
Edge: +2.0%
Fair odds: 3.72
Market odds: 3.80 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.91
Bookmaker margin: 6.9%

Millwall to win

Model: 55.2%
Market, margin removed: 56.7%

Probability gap: −1.5 pp
Edge: −8.9%
Fair odds: 1.81
Market odds: 1.65 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 1.90
Bookmaker margin: 6.9%

Derby County to win

Model: 17.9%
Market, margin removed: 18.7%

Probability gap: −0.8 pp
Edge: −10.4%
Fair odds: 5.58
Market odds: 5.00 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 5.86
Bookmaker margin: 6.9%

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +0.6%

Model 80.5%

Market 76.2%

Fair odds 1.24 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -2.8%

Model 54.0%

Market 52.6%

Fair odds 1.85 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -8.1%

Model 46.0%

Market 47.4%

Fair odds 2.18 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -21.9%

Model 19.5%

Market 23.8%

Fair odds 5.12 Bookmaker odds 4.00

Model skill: -0.01%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +4.0%

Model 57.8%

Market 51.5%

Fair odds 1.73 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -19.4%

Model 42.2%

Market 48.5%

Fair odds 2.37 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Derby County to score Goals by team

Edge +0.8%

Model 65.8%

Market 60.8%

Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: +2.56%
Derby County 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -2.1%

Model 26.1%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 3.83 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +2.61%
Millwall to score Goals by team

Edge -2.2%

Model 85.5%

Market 82.8%

Fair odds 1.17 Bookmaker odds 1.14

Model skill: +3.77%
Millwall 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -4.7%

Model 55.2%

Market 53.7%

Fair odds 1.81 Bookmaker odds 1.73

Model skill: +3.62%
Derby County at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -7.6%

Model 73.9%

Market 75.0%

Fair odds 1.35 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: +2.61%
Millwall at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -10.3%

Model 44.8%

Market 46.3%

Fair odds 2.23 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: +3.62%
Derby County not to score Goals by team

Edge -18.7%

Model 34.2%

Market 39.2%

Fair odds 2.92 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: +2.56%
Millwall not to score Goals by team

Edge -20.4%

Model 14.5%

Market 17.2%

Fair odds 6.91 Bookmaker odds 5.50

Model skill: +3.77%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Millwall xG 1.50 xGA 1.24

D 1.69 created, 1.52 conceded against Middlesbrough
D 2.68 created, 1.87 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.09 created, 0.65 conceded against Preston North End
L 1.05 created, 1.83 conceded against Swansea City
D 1.84 created, 0.73 conceded against Lincoln City
L 0.67 created, 0.82 conceded against Portsmouth

Derby County xG 1.07 xGA 1.61

L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.99 created, 0.56 conceded against Stoke City
D 1.09 created, 2.47 conceded against Sheffield United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.78
Over 2.5 goals: 54%
Both teams to score: 58%
Millwall 2+ goals: 55%
Millwall clean sheet: 34%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 13.6%
2:1: 11.6%
2:0: 10.0%

Why the model favours Millwall

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Millwall.

Attack: Favours Millwall; 6th vs 21st; Millwall attack v Derby County defence
Defence: Favours Millwall; 9th vs 18th; Millwall defence v Derby County attack
Recent xG form: Favours Millwall; +0.27 vs -0.54; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Millwall and Derby County compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Millwall	Derby County
xG / match	(better) 1.75 · 5th	0.97 · 23rd
xGA / match	(better) 1.32 · 9th	1.72 · 21st
xGD / match	(better) +0.43 · 6th	-0.75 · 22nd
xPts / match	(better) 1.63 · 7th	1.02 · 20th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.27	-0.54

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Millwall and Derby County compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Millwall	Derby County
xG / match	(better) 1.75 · 5th	0.97 · 23rd
npxG / match	(better) 1.67	0.90
Shots / match	(better) 13.9 · 9th	12.6 · 15th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.12 · 2nd	0.07 · 23rd

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Millwall and Derby County compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Millwall	Derby County
xGA / match	(better) 1.32 · 9th	1.72 · 21st
Shots faced / match	(better) 13.0 · 12th	15.1 · 17th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.09 · 9th	0.11 · 21st

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Millwall and Derby County compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Millwall	Derby County
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.50	1.07
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.24	1.61
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.27	-0.54

Head to head

Millwall 1 Draws 1 Derby County 0

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Millwall to win

55.2% 1.81 —

Draw

26.9% 3.72 —

Derby County to win

17.9% 5.58 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

80.5% 1.24 —

Under 1.5 goals

19.5% 5.12 —

Over 2.5 goals

54.0% 1.85 —

Under 2.5 goals

46.0% 2.18 —

Both teams to score

57.8% 1.73 —

Both teams not to score

42.2% 2.37 —

Team goals — Millwall

Millwall to score

85.5% 1.17 —

Millwall not to score

14.5% 6.91 —

Millwall 2+ goals

55.2% 1.81 —

Millwall at most 1 goal

44.8% 2.23 —

Team goals — Derby County

Derby County to score

65.8% 1.52 —

Derby County not to score

34.2% 2.92 —

Derby County 2+ goals

26.1% 3.83 —

Derby County at most 1 goal

73.9% 1.35 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Millwall xG 1.50 xGA 1.24

D 1.69 created, 1.52 conceded against Middlesbrough
D 2.68 created, 1.87 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.09 created, 0.65 conceded against Preston North End
L 1.05 created, 1.83 conceded against Swansea City
D 1.84 created, 0.73 conceded against Lincoln City
L 0.67 created, 0.82 conceded against Portsmouth

Derby County xG 1.07 xGA 1.61

L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.99 created, 0.56 conceded against Stoke City
D 1.09 created, 2.47 conceded against Sheffield United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Millwall 1 Draws 1 Derby County 0

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Millwall

Team comparison

Millwall attack → Derby County defence

Derby County attack → Millwall defence

Head to head

Got a different price?

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Millwall

Team goals — Derby County

What the model doesn't know