Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 13:30
22d 5h to kick-offMillwall – Queens Park Rangers
- Millwall
- 40%
- Fair 2.50 Fair odds 2.50
- Draw
- 31%
- Fair 3.21 Fair odds 3.21
- Queens Park Rangers
- 29%
- Fair 3.46 Fair odds 3.46
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Millwall 20/20
- Queens Park Rangers 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- D 1.69 created, 1.52 conceded against Middlesbrough
- D 2.68 created, 1.87 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.09 created, 0.65 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.05 created, 1.83 conceded against Swansea City
- D 1.84 created, 0.73 conceded against Lincoln City
- L 0.67 created, 0.82 conceded against Portsmouth
- D 0.62 created, 1.22 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- D 2.54 created, 1.50 conceded against Preston North End
- D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.52 created, 0.85 conceded against Derby County
- L 1.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 3.22 created, 0.20 conceded against Swansea City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- Millwall 2+ goals
- 41%
- Millwall clean sheet
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:0
- 8.6%
Why the model favours Millwall
Home advantage carries the lean to Millwall: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Millwall.
- Attack
- Favours Queens Park Rangers
- 6th vs 4th
- Millwall attack v Queens Park Rangers defence
- Defence
- Favours Queens Park Rangers
- 9th vs 7th
- Millwall defence v Queens Park Rangers attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Queens Park Rangers
- +0.27 vs +0.64
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Millwall | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.75 · 5th | 1.65 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.32 · 9th | (better) 1.12 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.43 · 6th | (better) +0.53 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.63 · 7th | (better) 1.72 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.27 | (better) +0.64 |
Head to head
Millwall 2 Draws 0 Queens Park Rangers 0
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Millwall sample
- 20 matches
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Millwall
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Queens Park Rangers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.