Norwich City – Watford prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 13:30 Sat 31 October, 13:30

1d 8h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Norwich City Home 20th in Championship

1.68

Watford Away 21st in Championship

0.99 Projected xG

Norwich City: 53%; Mkt 61% Market 61%; Fair 1.90 Fair odds 1.90
Draw: 28%; Mkt 22% Market 22%; Fair 3.55 Fair odds 3.55
Watford: 19%; Mkt 16% Market 16%; Fair 5.20 Fair odds 5.20

2 qualified edges: Norwich City at most 1 goal, Watford to win

Each passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Norwich City 20/20
Watford 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 03:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Norwich City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +20.7%

Model 48.3%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.07 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +16.2%

Model 48.9%

Market 39.8%

Fair odds 2.04 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: -0.89%
Watford to win Match result

Edge +10.6%

Model 19.2%

Market 16.3%

Fair odds 5.20 Bookmaker odds 5.75

Model skill: +7.20%

Hide the other markets

Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +18.2%

Model 28.1%

Market 22.4%

Fair odds 3.55 Bookmaker odds 4.20

Model skill: -1.04%
Watford to win Match result

Edge +10.6%

Model 19.2%

Market 16.3%

Fair odds 5.20 Bookmaker odds 5.75

Model skill: +7.20%
Norwich City to win Match result

Edge -19.3%

Model 52.6%

Market 61.3%

Fair odds 1.90 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 28.1%
Market, margin removed: 22.4%

Probability gap: +5.8 pp
Edge: +18.2%
Fair odds: 3.55
Market odds: 4.20 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.73
Bookmaker margin: 6.4%

Watford to win

Model: 19.2%
Market, margin removed: 16.3%

Probability gap: +2.9 pp
Edge: +10.6%
Fair odds: 5.20
Market odds: 5.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 5.46
Bookmaker margin: 6.4%

Norwich City to win

Model: 52.6%
Market, margin removed: 61.3%

Probability gap: −8.7 pp
Edge: −19.3%
Fair odds: 1.90
Market odds: 1.53 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.00
Bookmaker margin: 6.4%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +16.2%

Model 48.9%

Market 39.8%

Fair odds 2.04 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +7.2%

Model 21.4%

Market 18.9%

Fair odds 4.66 Bookmaker odds 5.00

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -8.3%

Model 78.6%

Market 81.1%

Fair odds 1.27 Bookmaker odds 1.17

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -19.8%

Model 51.1%

Market 60.2%

Fair odds 1.96 Bookmaker odds 1.57

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -4.4%

Model 43.5%

Market 42.3%

Fair odds 2.30 Bookmaker odds 2.20

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -8.7%

Model 56.5%

Market 57.7%

Fair odds 1.77 Bookmaker odds 1.62

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Norwich City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +20.7%

Model 48.3%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.07 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Norwich City not to score Goals by team

Edge +13.5%

Model 16.2%

Market 13.6%

Fair odds 6.17 Bookmaker odds 7.00

Model skill: +3.77% Kept answer: Norwich City at most 1 goal +20.7%
Watford at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -1.2%

Model 74.2%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.35 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: +2.61%
Watford to score Goals by team

Edge -5.4%

Model 65.5%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.53 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: +2.56%
Norwich City to score Goals by team

Edge -7.8%

Model 83.8%

Market 86.4%

Fair odds 1.19 Bookmaker odds 1.10

Model skill: +3.77%
Watford not to score Goals by team

Edge -9.4%

Model 34.5%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 2.90 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: +2.56%
Watford 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -16.0%

Model 25.8%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 3.87 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: +2.61%
Norwich City 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -22.4%

Model 51.7%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.93 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: +3.62%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Norwich City xG 1.01 xGA 1.64

L 1.62 created, 2.07 conceded against Middlesbrough
L 0.69 created, 1.10 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
L 0.68 created, 2.36 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.07 created, 2.34 conceded against Southampton
L 0.29 created, 1.19 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.69 created, 0.79 conceded against Charlton Athletic

Watford xG 1.00 xGA 1.95

L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
W 2.78 created, 1.25 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 0.13 created, 1.84 conceded against Wolverhampton

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.66
Over 2.5 goals: 51%
Both teams to score: 57%
Norwich City 2+ goals: 52%
Norwich City clean sheet: 35%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 14.4%
2:1: 11.4%
2:0: 10.0%

Why the model favours Norwich City

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Norwich City.

Attack: Favours Norwich City; 10th vs 23rd; Norwich City attack v Watford defence
Defence: Favours Norwich City; 11th vs 22nd; Norwich City defence v Watford attack
Recent xG form: Favours Norwich City; -0.64 vs -0.95; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Norwich City and Watford compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Norwich City	Watford
xG / match	(better) 1.48 · 10th	1.05 · 20th
xGA / match	(better) 1.53 · 16th	1.88 · 23rd
xGD / match	(better) -0.05 · 13th	-0.83 · 24th
xPts / match	(better) 1.33 · 14th	0.82 · 24th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.63	-0.95

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Norwich City and Watford compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Norwich City	Watford
xG / match	(better) 1.48 · 10th	1.05 · 20th
npxG / match	(better) 1.30	0.95
Shots / match	(better) 14.1 · 8th	12.3 · joint 18th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.09 · 16th	0.08 · 22nd

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Norwich City and Watford compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Norwich City	Watford
xGA / match	(better) 1.53 · 16th	1.88 · 23rd
Shots faced / match	(better) 12.1 · joint 9th	16.6 · 22nd
npxGA / shot	0.12 · 23rd	(better) 0.10 · 20th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Norwich City and Watford compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Norwich City	Watford
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.01	1.00
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.64	1.95
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.63	-0.95

Head to head

Norwich City 0 Draws 0 Watford 2

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Norwich City to win

52.6% 1.90 —

Draw

28.1% 3.55 —

Watford to win

19.2% 5.20 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

78.6% 1.27 —

Under 1.5 goals

21.4% 4.66 —

Over 2.5 goals

51.1% 1.96 —

Under 2.5 goals

48.9% 2.04 —

Both teams to score

56.5% 1.77 —

Both teams not to score

43.5% 2.30 —

Team goals — Norwich City

Norwich City to score

83.8% 1.19 —

Norwich City not to score

16.2% 6.17 —

Norwich City 2+ goals

51.7% 1.93 —

Norwich City at most 1 goal

48.3% 2.07 —

Team goals — Watford

Watford to score

65.5% 1.53 —

Watford not to score

34.5% 2.90 —

Watford 2+ goals

25.8% 3.87 —

Watford at most 1 goal

74.2% 1.35 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Norwich City xG 1.01 xGA 1.64

L 1.62 created, 2.07 conceded against Middlesbrough
L 0.69 created, 1.10 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
L 0.68 created, 2.36 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.07 created, 2.34 conceded against Southampton
L 0.29 created, 1.19 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.69 created, 0.79 conceded against Charlton Athletic

Watford xG 1.00 xGA 1.95

L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
W 2.78 created, 1.25 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 0.13 created, 1.84 conceded against Wolverhampton

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Norwich City 0 Draws 0 Watford 2

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Norwich City

Team comparison

Norwich City attack → Watford defence

Watford attack → Norwich City defence

Head to head

Got a different price?

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Norwich City

Team goals — Watford

What the model doesn't know