Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
4d 16h to kick-offPreston North End – Sheffield United
- Preston North End
- 40%
- Fair 2.50 Fair odds 2.50
- Draw
- 29%
- Fair 3.43 Fair odds 3.43
- Sheffield United
- 31%
- Fair 3.24 Fair odds 3.24
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Preston North End 20/20
- Sheffield United 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Lincoln City
- D 1.50 created, 2.54 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Millwall
- L 0.49 created, 2.24 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 0.72 created, 1.86 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.79 created, 2.08 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 0.63 created, 1.57 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 0.48 created, 0.54 conceded against Stoke City
- W 0.68 created, 1.39 conceded against Lincoln City
- L 2.01 created, 2.22 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.18 created, 0.50 conceded against Bristol City
- D 2.47 created, 1.09 conceded against Derby County
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- Preston North End 2+ goals
- 47%
- Preston North End clean sheet
- 24%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Why the model leans Preston North End, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to Preston North End: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Preston North End.
- Attack
- Favours Preston North End
- 12th vs 19th
- Preston North End attack v Sheffield United defence
- Defence
- Favours Sheffield United
- 24th vs 15th
- Preston North End defence v Sheffield United attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Sheffield United
- -0.79 vs +0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Preston North End | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.28 · 16th | 1.18 · 18th |
| xGA / match | 1.51 · 15th | (better) 1.46 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.23 · 16th | -0.28 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.19 · 16th | 1.17 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.79 | (better) +0.02 |
Head to head
Preston North End 2 Draws 0 Sheffield United 0
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Preston North End
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Sheffield United
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.