Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 16:00
21d 6h to kick-offSheffield United – Watford
- Sheffield United
- 46%
- Fair 2.18 Fair odds 2.18
- Draw
- 30%
- Fair 3.35 Fair odds 3.35
- Watford
- 24%
- Fair 4.11 Fair odds 4.11
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Sheffield United 20/20
- Watford 20/20
- Model updated 31 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
- L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
- L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 2.78 created, 1.25 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 0.13 created, 1.84 conceded against Wolverhampton
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- Sheffield United 2+ goals
- 47%
- Sheffield United clean sheet
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:0
- 8.5%
Why the model favours Sheffield United
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Sheffield United.
- Attack
- Favours Sheffield United
- 17th vs 23rd
- Sheffield United attack v Watford defence
- Defence
- Favours Sheffield United
- 16th vs 22nd
- Sheffield United defence v Watford attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Sheffield United
- +0.26 vs -0.95
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sheffield United | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.17 · 18th | 1.05 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.39 · 12th | 1.88 · 23rd |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.22 · 16th | -0.83 · 24th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.22 · 16th | 0.82 · 24th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.26 | -0.95 |
Head to head
Sheffield United 2 Draws 0 Watford 0
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sheffield United
- 7 matches
- Away xG sample · Watford
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.