Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 13:30
1d 8h to kick-offStoke City – Preston North End
- Stoke City
- 36%
- Mkt 54% Market 54%
- Fair 2.81 Fair odds 2.81
- Draw
- 31%
- Mkt 25% Market 25%
- Fair 3.21 Fair odds 3.21
- Preston North End
- 33%
- Mkt 21% Market 21%
- Fair 3.01 Fair odds 3.01
2 qualified edges: Preston North End 2+ goals, Stoke City not to score
Each passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →
- Stoke City 20/20
- Preston North End 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00
Where the model disagrees with the market
Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.
Match result
Model against the market
Preston North End to win
- Model
- 33.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.8%
- Probability gap
- +12.4 pp
- Edge
- +49.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.01
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.16
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.8%
Draw
- Model
- 31.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.0%
- Probability gap
- +6.2 pp
- Edge
- +16.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.21
- Market odds
- 3.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.8%
Stoke City to win
- Model
- 35.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 54.2%
- Probability gap
- −18.6 pp
- Edge
- −38.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.81
- Market odds
- 1.73 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.95
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.8%
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →
Recent form
- W 1.50 created, 0.39 conceded against Watford
- W 0.54 created, 0.48 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 0.74 created, 3.13 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.65 created, 2.57 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 0.56 created, 0.99 conceded against Derby County
- D 0.67 created, 0.78 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Lincoln City
- D 1.50 created, 2.54 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Millwall
- L 0.49 created, 2.24 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 0.72 created, 1.86 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.79 created, 2.08 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- Stoke City 2+ goals
- 39%
- Stoke City clean sheet
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Why the model leans Stoke City, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to Stoke City: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Stoke City.
- Attack
- Even
- 24th vs 24th
- Stoke City attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- Favours Preston North End
- 17th vs 12th
- Stoke City defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Stoke City
- -0.61 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Stoke City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.88 · 24th | (better) 1.28 · 16th |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 19th | (better) 1.51 · 15th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 23rd | (better) -0.23 · 16th |
| xPts / match | 0.94 · 22nd | (better) 1.19 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.61 | -0.79 |
Head to head
Stoke City 0 Draws 1 Preston North End 1
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Stoke City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Preston North End
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
- Odds updated
- 11 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.