Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
1d 9h to kick-offSwansea City – Blackburn Rovers
- Swansea City
- 50%
- Mkt 54% Market 54%
- Fair 1.98 Fair odds 1.98
- Draw
- 30%
- Mkt 27% Market 27%
- Fair 3.34 Fair odds 3.34
- Blackburn Rovers
- 20%
- Mkt 20% Market 20%
- Fair 5.10 Fair odds 5.10
No qualified edge
The largest edge is Draw at +4.7%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: No proven skill. How this is decided →
- Swansea City 20/20
- Blackburn Rovers 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00
Where the model disagrees with the market
Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.
Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →
Recent form
- W 2.63 created, 1.73 conceded against Burnley
- W 0.92 created, 2.11 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 2.36 created, 0.68 conceded against Norwich City
- W 1.83 created, 1.05 conceded against Millwall
- L 1.04 created, 1.19 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.20 created, 3.22 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
- D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 0.15 created, 1.89 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.82 created, 3.68 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.53 created, 1.69 conceded against Wrexham
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- Swansea City 2+ goals
- 47%
- Swansea City clean sheet
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.5%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 1:0
- 10.8%
Why the model favours Swansea City
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Swansea City.
- Attack
- Favours Swansea City
- 13th vs 21st
- Swansea City attack v Blackburn Rovers defence
- Defence
- Favours Swansea City
- 6th vs 21st
- Swansea City defence v Blackburn Rovers attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Swansea City
- -0.17 vs -0.81
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Swansea City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.49 · 9th | 1.03 · 21st |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.32 · 8th | 1.72 · 22nd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.17 · 10th | -0.69 · 21st |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.50 · 10th | 0.92 · 23rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.17 | -0.81 |
Head to head
Swansea City 2 Draws 0 Blackburn Rovers 0
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Swansea City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Blackburn Rovers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
- Odds updated
- 12 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.