Swansea City – Blackburn Rovers prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

1d 5h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Swansea City Home 3rd in Championship

1.54

Blackburn Rovers Away 10th in Championship

0.92 Projected xG

Swansea City: 50%; Mkt 54% Market 54%; Fair 1.98 Fair odds 1.98
Draw: 30%; Mkt 27% Market 27%; Fair 3.34 Fair odds 3.34
Blackburn Rovers: 20%; Mkt 20% Market 20%; Fair 5.10 Fair odds 5.10

No qualified edge

The largest edge is Draw at +4.7%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: No proven skill. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Swansea City 20/20
Blackburn Rovers 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 09:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Draw Match result

Edge +4.7%

Model 29.9%

Market 26.8%

Fair odds 3.34 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: -1.04%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +4.0%

Model 54.5%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.84 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Swansea City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +1.4%

Model 53.1%

Market 48.5%

Fair odds 1.88 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: +3.62%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +4.7%

Model 29.9%

Market 26.8%

Fair odds 3.34 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: -1.04%
Blackburn Rovers to win Match result

Edge -6.9%

Model 19.6%

Market 19.7%

Fair odds 5.10 Bookmaker odds 4.75

Model skill: +7.20%
Swansea City to win Match result

Edge -11.6%

Model 50.5%

Market 53.5%

Fair odds 1.98 Bookmaker odds 1.75

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 29.9%
Market, margin removed: 26.8%

Probability gap: +3.1 pp
Edge: +4.7%
Fair odds: 3.34
Market odds: 3.50 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.51
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

Blackburn Rovers to win

Model: 19.6%
Market, margin removed: 19.7%

Probability gap: −0.1 pp
Edge: −6.9%
Fair odds: 5.10
Market odds: 4.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 5.36
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

Swansea City to win

Model: 50.5%
Market, margin removed: 53.5%

Probability gap: −3.0 pp
Edge: −11.6%
Fair odds: 1.98
Market odds: 1.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.08
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +4.0%

Model 54.5%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.84 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -3.9%

Model 74.7%

Market 74.5%

Fair odds 1.34 Bookmaker odds 1.29

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -5.2%

Model 25.3%

Market 25.5%

Fair odds 3.96 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -13.1%

Model 45.5%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 2.20 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -4.4%

Model 53.1%

Market 51.5%

Fair odds 1.88 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -10.5%

Model 46.9%

Market 48.5%

Fair odds 2.13 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Swansea City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +1.4%

Model 53.1%

Market 48.5%

Fair odds 1.88 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: +3.62%
Blackburn Rovers to score Goals by team

Edge -3.0%

Model 63.3%

Market 60.8%

Fair odds 1.58 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: +2.56%
Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -4.0%

Model 76.8%

Market 75.0%

Fair odds 1.30 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: +2.61%
Swansea City to score Goals by team

Edge -5.3%

Model 81.1%

Market 81.1%

Fair odds 1.23 Bookmaker odds 1.17

Model skill: +3.77%
Swansea City not to score Goals by team

Edge -5.7%

Model 18.9%

Market 18.9%

Fair odds 5.30 Bookmaker odds 5.00

Model skill: +3.77%
Blackburn Rovers not to score Goals by team

Edge -12.8%

Model 36.7%

Market 39.2%

Fair odds 2.72 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: +2.56%
Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -12.9%

Model 23.2%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 4.31 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +2.61%
Swansea City 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -15.6%

Model 46.9%

Market 51.5%

Fair odds 2.13 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: +3.62%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

Got different odds? Check your price →

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Swansea City xG 1.50 xGA 1.66

W 2.63 created, 1.73 conceded against Burnley
W 0.92 created, 2.11 conceded against Lincoln City
W 2.36 created, 0.68 conceded against Norwich City
W 1.83 created, 1.05 conceded against Millwall
L 1.04 created, 1.19 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.20 created, 3.22 conceded against Queens Park Rangers

Blackburn Rovers xG 1.12 xGA 1.93

W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
W 0.15 created, 1.89 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.82 created, 3.68 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.53 created, 1.69 conceded against Wrexham

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.46
Over 2.5 goals: 46%
Both teams to score: 53%
Swansea City 2+ goals: 47%
Swansea City clean sheet: 37%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 15.5%
2:1: 11.2%
1:0: 10.8%

Why the model favours Swansea City

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Swansea City.

Attack: Favours Swansea City; 13th vs 21st; Swansea City attack v Blackburn Rovers defence
Defence: Favours Swansea City; 6th vs 21st; Swansea City defence v Blackburn Rovers attack
Recent xG form: Favours Swansea City; -0.17 vs -0.81; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Swansea City and Blackburn Rovers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Swansea City	Blackburn Rovers
xG / match	(better) 1.49 · 9th	1.03 · 21st
xGA / match	(better) 1.32 · 8th	1.72 · 22nd
xGD / match	(better) +0.17 · 10th	-0.69 · 21st
xPts / match	(better) 1.50 · 10th	0.92 · 23rd
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.17	-0.81

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Swansea City and Blackburn Rovers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Swansea City	Blackburn Rovers
xG / match	(better) 1.49 · 9th	1.03 · 21st
npxG / match	(better) 1.46	0.93
Shots / match	(better) 11.8 · 20th	11.6 · 21st
npxG / shot	(better) 0.12 · 1st	0.08 · 20th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Swansea City and Blackburn Rovers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Swansea City	Blackburn Rovers
xGA / match	(better) 1.32 · 8th	1.72 · 22nd
Shots faced / match	(better) 10.9 · joint 2nd	17.3 · 24th
npxGA / shot	0.10 · 19th	(better) 0.08 · 4th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Swansea City and Blackburn Rovers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Swansea City	Blackburn Rovers
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.50	1.12
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.66	1.93
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.17	-0.81

Head to head

Swansea City 2 Draws 0 Blackburn Rovers 0

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Swansea City to win

50.5% 1.98 —

Draw

29.9% 3.34 —

Blackburn Rovers to win

19.6% 5.10 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

74.7% 1.34 —

Under 1.5 goals

25.3% 3.96 —

Over 2.5 goals

45.5% 2.20 —

Under 2.5 goals

54.5% 1.84 —

Both teams to score

53.1% 1.88 —

Both teams not to score

46.9% 2.13 —

Team goals — Swansea City

Swansea City to score

81.1% 1.23 —

Swansea City not to score

18.9% 5.30 —

Swansea City 2+ goals

46.9% 2.13 —

Swansea City at most 1 goal

53.1% 1.88 —

Team goals — Blackburn Rovers

Blackburn Rovers to score

63.3% 1.58 —

Blackburn Rovers not to score

36.7% 2.72 —

Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals

23.2% 4.31 —

Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal

76.8% 1.30 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Swansea City xG 1.50 xGA 1.66

W 2.63 created, 1.73 conceded against Burnley
W 0.92 created, 2.11 conceded against Lincoln City
W 2.36 created, 0.68 conceded against Norwich City
W 1.83 created, 1.05 conceded against Millwall
L 1.04 created, 1.19 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.20 created, 3.22 conceded against Queens Park Rangers

Blackburn Rovers xG 1.12 xGA 1.93

W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
W 0.15 created, 1.89 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.82 created, 3.68 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.53 created, 1.69 conceded against Wrexham

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Swansea City 2 Draws 0 Blackburn Rovers 0

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Swansea City

Team comparison

Swansea City attack → Blackburn Rovers defence

Blackburn Rovers attack → Swansea City defence

Head to head

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Swansea City

Team goals — Blackburn Rovers

What the model doesn't know