Sunday, 29/11/2026 at 13:00
30d 6h to kick-offSwansea City – Cardiff City
- Swansea City
- 41%
- Fair 2.46 Fair odds 2.46
- Draw
- 30%
- Fair 3.33 Fair odds 3.33
- Cardiff City
- 29%
- Fair 3.41 Fair odds 3.41
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Swansea City 20/20
- Cardiff City 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 2.63 created, 1.73 conceded against Burnley
- W 0.92 created, 2.11 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 2.36 created, 0.68 conceded against Norwich City
- W 1.83 created, 1.05 conceded against Millwall
- L 1.04 created, 1.19 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.20 created, 3.22 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
- D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.36 created, 0.89 conceded against Birmingham City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- Swansea City 2+ goals
- 45%
- Swansea City clean sheet
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Why the model favours Swansea City
Home advantage carries the lean to Swansea City: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Swansea City.
- Attack
- Favours Swansea City
- 13th vs 15th
- Swansea City attack v Cardiff City defence
- Defence
- Favours Cardiff City
- 6th vs 4th
- Swansea City defence v Cardiff City attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Cardiff City
- -0.17 vs +0.52
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Swansea City | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.49 · 9th | (better) 1.92 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.32 · 8th | 1.57 · 17th |
| xGD / match | +0.17 · 10th | (better) +0.35 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.50 · 10th | (better) 1.58 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.17 | (better) +0.52 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- Cardiff City sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Swansea City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Cardiff City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.