Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
4d 15h to kick-offWatford – Lincoln City
- Watford
- 33%
- Fair 3.07 Fair odds 3.07
- Draw
- 31%
- Fair 3.19 Fair odds 3.19
- Lincoln City
- 36%
- Fair 2.77 Fair odds 2.77
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Watford 20/20
- Lincoln City 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
- L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
- L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 2.78 created, 1.25 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 0.13 created, 1.84 conceded against Wolverhampton
- W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
- L 0.35 created, 3.20 conceded against West Ham United
- D 0.73 created, 1.84 conceded against Millwall
- W 1.90 created, 2.35 conceded against Burnley
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- Lincoln City 2+ goals
- 38%
- Lincoln City clean sheet
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 1:2
- 9.7%
- 2:1
- 9.1%
Why the model leans Lincoln City, but not by much
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Lincoln City.
- Attack
- Favours Lincoln City
- 17th vs 23rd
- Lincoln City attack v Watford defence
- Defence
- Favours Lincoln City
- 14th vs 22nd
- Lincoln City defence v Watford attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Lincoln City
- -0.59 vs -0.95
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Watford | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.05 · 20th | (better) 1.30 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 23rd | (better) 1.45 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.83 · 24th | (better) -0.15 · 15th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 24th | (better) 1.35 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.95 | (better) -0.59 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Lincoln City sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Watford
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Lincoln City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.