Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 21:00
4d 18h to kick-offWest Bromwich Albion – Southampton
- West Bromwich Albion
- 35%
- Fair 2.85 Fair odds 2.85
- Draw
- 30%
- Fair 3.31 Fair odds 3.31
- Southampton
- 35%
- Fair 2.88 Fair odds 2.88
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- West Bromwich Albion 20/20
- Southampton 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 00:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- D 1.22 created, 0.62 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.29 created, 1.95 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 1.05 created, 2.55 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 0.94 created, 0.38 conceded against Wrexham
- W 3.68 created, 0.82 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- D 2.08 created, 1.79 conceded against Preston North End
- W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
- W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.34 created, 1.07 conceded against Norwich City
- D 1.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against West Ham United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals
- 41%
- West Bromwich Albion clean sheet
- 23%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
Why the model leans West Bromwich Albion, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to West Bromwich Albion: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs West Bromwich Albion.
- Attack
- Favours Southampton
- 14th vs 13th
- West Bromwich Albion attack v Southampton defence
- Defence
- Favours Southampton
- 10th vs 3rd
- West Bromwich Albion defence v Southampton attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Southampton
- +0.19 vs +0.51
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | West Bromwich Albion | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.35 · 12th | (better) 1.81 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.47 · 14th | (better) 1.33 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.12 · 14th | (better) +0.48 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.27 · 15th | (better) 1.70 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.19 | (better) +0.51 |
Head to head
West Bromwich Albion 0 Draws 1 Southampton 1
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · West Bromwich Albion
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Southampton
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.