Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
29d 7h to kick-offWest Ham United – Stoke City
- West Ham United
- 64%
- Fair 1.56 Fair odds 1.56
- Draw
- 24%
- Fair 4.16 Fair odds 4.16
- Stoke City
- 12%
- Fair 8.32 Fair odds 8.32
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- West Ham United 12/20
- Stoke City 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 2.96 created, 0.44 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.87 created, 2.68 conceded against Millwall
- D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- W 3.20 created, 0.35 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.19 created, 1.04 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against Southampton
- W 1.50 created, 0.39 conceded against Watford
- W 0.54 created, 0.48 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 0.74 created, 3.13 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.65 created, 2.57 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 0.56 created, 0.99 conceded against Derby County
- D 0.67 created, 0.78 conceded against Bristol City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 60%
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 12.5%
- 2:0
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 11.8%
Why the model favours West Ham United
Attack, defence and recent form all point to West Ham United.
- Attack
- Favours West Ham United
- 2nd vs 17th
- West Ham United attack v Stoke City defence
- Defence
- Favours West Ham United
- 5th vs 24th
- West Ham United defence v Stoke City attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours West Ham United
- +0.81 vs -0.61
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | West Ham United | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.11 · 2nd | 0.88 · 24th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.21 · 6th | 1.63 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.90 · 2nd | -0.75 · 23rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.84 · 3rd | 0.94 · 22nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.81 | -0.61 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Ham United sample
- 12 matches
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · West Ham United
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Stoke City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.