West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

1d 8h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

West Ham United Home 4th in Championship

1.72

West Bromwich Albion Away 6th in Championship

1.00 Projected xG

West Ham United: 53%; Mkt 58% Market 58%; Fair 1.88 Fair odds 1.88
Draw: 28%; Mkt 22% Market 22%; Fair 3.61 Fair odds 3.61
West Bromwich Albion: 19%; Mkt 20% Market 20%; Fair 5.26 Fair odds 5.26

1 qualified edge: West Ham United at most 1 goal

It passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · partial

West Ham United 12/20
West Bromwich Albion 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 06:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Draw Match result

Edge +16.4%

Model 27.7%

Market 22.3%

Fair odds 3.61 Bookmaker odds 4.20

Model skill: -1.04%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +9.2%

Model 47.5%

Market 41.3%

Fair odds 2.11 Bookmaker odds 2.30

Model skill: -0.89%
West Ham United at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +5.6%

Model 47.0%

Market 41.1%

Fair odds 2.13 Bookmaker odds 2.25

Model skill: +3.62%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +16.4%

Model 27.7%

Market 22.3%

Fair odds 3.61 Bookmaker odds 4.20

Model skill: -1.04%
West Bromwich Albion to win Match result

Edge -9.7%

Model 19.0%

Market 19.7%

Fair odds 5.26 Bookmaker odds 4.75

Model skill: +7.20%
West Ham United to win Match result

Edge -14.0%

Model 53.3%

Market 58.0%

Fair odds 1.88 Bookmaker odds 1.62

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 27.7%
Market, margin removed: 22.3%

Probability gap: +5.4 pp
Edge: +16.4%
Fair odds: 3.61
Market odds: 4.20 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.79
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

West Bromwich Albion to win

Model: 19.0%
Market, margin removed: 19.7%

Probability gap: −0.7 pp
Edge: −9.7%
Fair odds: 5.26
Market odds: 4.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 5.52
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

West Ham United to win

Model: 53.3%
Market, margin removed: 58.0%

Probability gap: −4.7 pp
Edge: −14.0%
Fair odds: 1.88
Market odds: 1.62 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 1.97
Bookmaker margin: 6.8%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +9.2%

Model 47.5%

Market 41.3%

Fair odds 2.11 Bookmaker odds 2.30

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -4.5%

Model 79.6%

Market 78.9%

Fair odds 1.26 Bookmaker odds 1.20

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -8.1%

Model 20.4%

Market 21.1%

Fair odds 4.89 Bookmaker odds 4.50

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -15.2%

Model 52.5%

Market 58.7%

Fair odds 1.90 Bookmaker odds 1.62

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -4.2%

Model 57.5%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.74 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -10.7%

Model 42.5%

Market 44.3%

Fair odds 2.35 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

West Ham United at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +5.6%

Model 47.0%

Market 41.1%

Fair odds 2.13 Bookmaker odds 2.25

Model skill: +3.62%
West Ham United not to score Goals by team

Edge +0.6%

Model 15.5%

Market 14.6%

Fair odds 6.46 Bookmaker odds 6.50

Model skill: +3.77%
West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -2.0%

Model 73.6%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.36 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: +2.61%
West Bromwich Albion to score Goals by team

Edge -4.5%

Model 66.1%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.51 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: +2.56%
West Ham United to score Goals by team

Edge -6.1%

Model 84.5%

Market 85.4%

Fair odds 1.18 Bookmaker odds 1.11

Model skill: +3.77%
West Bromwich Albion not to score Goals by team

Edge -11.0%

Model 33.9%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 2.95 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: +2.56%
West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -14.1%

Model 26.4%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 3.78 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: +2.61%
West Ham United 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -16.7%

Model 53.0%

Market 58.9%

Fair odds 1.89 Bookmaker odds 1.57

Model skill: +3.62%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

West Ham United xG 2.03 xGA 1.22

W 2.96 created, 0.44 conceded against Wrexham
D 1.87 created, 2.68 conceded against Millwall
D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 3.20 created, 0.35 conceded against Lincoln City
W 1.19 created, 1.04 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against Southampton

West Bromwich Albion xG 1.54 xGA 1.35

D 1.22 created, 0.62 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.29 created, 1.95 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.05 created, 2.55 conceded against Birmingham City
W 0.94 created, 0.38 conceded against Wrexham
W 3.68 created, 0.82 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
D 2.08 created, 1.79 conceded against Preston North End

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.72
Over 2.5 goals: 53%
Both teams to score: 57%
West Ham United 2+ goals: 53%
West Ham United clean sheet: 34%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 14.1%
2:1: 11.5%
2:0: 9.9%

Why the model favours West Ham United

Attack, defence and recent form all point to West Ham United.

Attack: Favours West Ham United; 2nd vs 10th; West Ham United attack v West Bromwich Albion defence
Defence: Favours West Ham United; 5th vs 14th; West Ham United defence v West Bromwich Albion attack
Recent xG form: Favours West Ham United; +0.81 vs +0.19; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	West Ham United	West Bromwich Albion
xG / match	(better) 2.11 · 2nd	1.35 · 12th
xGA / match	(better) 1.21 · 6th	1.47 · 14th
xGD / match	(better) +0.90 · 2nd	-0.12 · 14th
xPts / match	(better) 1.84 · 3rd	1.27 · 15th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.81	+0.19

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	West Ham United	West Bromwich Albion
xG / match	(better) 2.11 · 2nd	1.35 · 12th
npxG / match	(better) 1.86	1.19
Shots / match	(better) 17.3 · 2nd	12.3 · joint 18th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.11 · 5th	0.10 · 11th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	West Ham United	West Bromwich Albion
xGA / match	(better) 1.21 · 6th	1.47 · 14th
Shots faced / match	(better) 11.8 · 6th	12.1 · joint 9th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.09 · 8th	0.12 · 22nd

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	West Ham United	West Bromwich Albion
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 2.03	1.54
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.22	1.35
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.81	+0.19

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

West Ham United to win

53.3% 1.88 —

Draw

27.7% 3.61 —

West Bromwich Albion to win

19.0% 5.26 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

79.6% 1.26 —

Under 1.5 goals

20.4% 4.89 —

Over 2.5 goals

52.5% 1.90 —

Under 2.5 goals

47.5% 2.11 —

Both teams to score

57.5% 1.74 —

Both teams not to score

42.5% 2.35 —

Team goals — West Ham United

West Ham United to score

84.5% 1.18 —

West Ham United not to score

15.5% 6.46 —

West Ham United 2+ goals

53.0% 1.89 —

West Ham United at most 1 goal

47.0% 2.13 —

Team goals — West Bromwich Albion

West Bromwich Albion to score

66.1% 1.51 —

West Bromwich Albion not to score

33.9% 2.95 —

West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals

26.4% 3.78 —

West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal

73.6% 1.36 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

West Ham United xG 2.03 xGA 1.22

W 2.96 created, 0.44 conceded against Wrexham
D 1.87 created, 2.68 conceded against Millwall
D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 3.20 created, 0.35 conceded against Lincoln City
W 1.19 created, 1.04 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against Southampton

West Bromwich Albion xG 1.54 xGA 1.35

D 1.22 created, 0.62 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.29 created, 1.95 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.05 created, 2.55 conceded against Birmingham City
W 0.94 created, 0.38 conceded against Wrexham
W 3.68 created, 0.82 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
D 2.08 created, 1.79 conceded against Preston North End

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours West Ham United

Team comparison

West Ham United attack → West Bromwich Albion defence

West Bromwich Albion attack → West Ham United defence

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — West Ham United

Team goals — West Bromwich Albion

What the model doesn't know