Wolverhampton – Cardiff City prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

1d 5h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Wolverhampton Home 5th in Championship

1.73

Cardiff City Away 16th in Championship

1.07 Projected xG

Wolverhampton: 52%; Mkt 56% Market 56%; Fair 1.93 Fair odds 1.93
Draw: 28%; Mkt 24% Market 24%; Fair 3.61 Fair odds 3.61
Cardiff City: 21%; Mkt 20% Market 20%; Fair 4.86 Fair odds 4.86

1 qualified edge: Wolverhampton at most 1 goal

It passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · partial

Wolverhampton 12/20
Cardiff City 12/20

Model updated 30 October, 09:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +19.1%

Model 45.4%

Market 36.4%

Fair odds 2.20 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: -0.89%
Wolverhampton at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +16.6%

Model 46.7%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.14 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Draw Match result

Edge +8.0%

Model 27.7%

Market 24.0%

Fair odds 3.61 Bookmaker odds 3.90

Model skill: -1.04%
Cardiff City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +2.2%

Model 70.8%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.41 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: +2.61%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge +0.7%

Model 40.3%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.48 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: -0.43%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +8.0%

Model 27.7%

Market 24.0%

Fair odds 3.61 Bookmaker odds 3.90

Model skill: -1.04%
Cardiff City to win Match result

Edge -2.2%

Model 20.6%

Market 19.7%

Fair odds 4.86 Bookmaker odds 4.75

Model skill: +7.20%
Wolverhampton to win Match result

Edge -13.8%

Model 51.7%

Market 56.2%

Fair odds 1.93 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 27.7%
Market, margin removed: 24.0%

Probability gap: +3.7 pp
Edge: +8.0%
Fair odds: 3.61
Market odds: 3.90 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.79
Bookmaker margin: 6.7%

Cardiff City to win

Model: 20.6%
Market, margin removed: 19.7%

Probability gap: +0.8 pp
Edge: −2.2%
Fair odds: 4.86
Market odds: 4.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 5.10
Bookmaker margin: 6.7%

Wolverhampton to win

Model: 51.7%
Market, margin removed: 56.2%

Probability gap: −4.5 pp
Edge: −13.8%
Fair odds: 1.93
Market odds: 1.67 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.03
Bookmaker margin: 6.7%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +19.1%

Model 45.4%

Market 36.4%

Fair odds 2.20 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +5.0%

Model 19.1%

Market 17.2%

Fair odds 5.24 Bookmaker odds 5.50

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -7.5%

Model 80.9%

Market 82.8%

Fair odds 1.24 Bookmaker odds 1.14

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -18.1%

Model 54.6%

Market 63.6%

Fair odds 1.83 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge +0.7%

Model 40.3%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.48 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -10.4%

Model 59.7%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.67 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Wolverhampton at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +16.6%

Model 46.7%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.14 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Wolverhampton not to score Goals by team

Edge +8.1%

Model 15.4%

Market 13.6%

Fair odds 6.48 Bookmaker odds 7.00

Model skill: +3.77% Kept answer: Wolverhampton at most 1 goal +16.6%
Cardiff City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +2.2%

Model 70.8%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.41 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: +2.61%
Cardiff City not to score Goals by team

Edge +1.6%

Model 31.3%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 3.20 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: +2.56%
Wolverhampton to score Goals by team

Edge -7.0%

Model 84.6%

Market 86.4%

Fair odds 1.18 Bookmaker odds 1.10

Model skill: +3.77%
Cardiff City to score Goals by team

Edge -8.4%

Model 68.7%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.45 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: +2.56%
Wolverhampton 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -20.0%

Model 53.3%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.87 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Cardiff City 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -23.4%

Model 29.2%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 3.43 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: +2.61%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wolverhampton xG 1.59 xGA 0.77

W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 1.82 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
D 1.01 created, 0.65 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.84 created, 0.13 conceded against Watford

Cardiff City xG 2.05 xGA 1.54

L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
W 2.36 created, 0.89 conceded against Birmingham City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.80
Over 2.5 goals: 55%
Both teams to score: 60%
Wolverhampton 2+ goals: 53%
Wolverhampton clean sheet: 31%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 13.9%
2:1: 11.4%
2:0: 9.0%

Why the model favours Wolverhampton

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Wolverhampton.

Attack: Favours Wolverhampton; 5th vs 15th; Wolverhampton attack v Cardiff City defence
Defence: Favours Wolverhampton; 1st vs 4th; Wolverhampton defence v Cardiff City attack
Recent xG form: Favours Wolverhampton; +0.82 vs +0.52; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Wolverhampton and Cardiff City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Wolverhampton	Cardiff City
xG / match	1.72 · 6th	(better) 1.92 · 3rd
xGA / match	(better) 0.92 · 1st	1.57 · 17th
xGD / match	(better) +0.81 · 3rd	+0.35 · 8th
xPts / match	(better) 1.97 · 2nd	1.58 · 8th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.82	+0.52

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Wolverhampton and Cardiff City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Wolverhampton	Cardiff City
xG / match	1.72 · 6th	(better) 1.92 · 3rd
npxG / match	1.57	(better) 1.66
Shots / match	16.8 · 4th	(better) 17.1 · 3rd
npxG / shot	0.09 · 13th	(better) 0.10 · 10th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Wolverhampton and Cardiff City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Wolverhampton	Cardiff City
xGA / match	(better) 0.92 · 1st	1.57 · 17th
Shots faced / match	(better) 10.3 · 1st	14.4 · 14th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.08 · 3rd	0.10 · 16th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Wolverhampton and Cardiff City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Wolverhampton	Cardiff City
Last 6 xG / match	1.59	(better) 2.05
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 0.77	1.54
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.82	+0.52

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Wolverhampton to win

51.7% 1.93 —

Draw

27.7% 3.61 —

Cardiff City to win

20.6% 4.86 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

80.9% 1.24 —

Under 1.5 goals

19.1% 5.24 —

Over 2.5 goals

54.6% 1.83 —

Under 2.5 goals

45.4% 2.20 —

Both teams to score

59.7% 1.67 —

Both teams not to score

40.3% 2.48 —

Team goals — Wolverhampton

Wolverhampton to score

84.6% 1.18 —

Wolverhampton not to score

15.4% 6.48 —

Wolverhampton 2+ goals

53.3% 1.87 —

Wolverhampton at most 1 goal

46.7% 2.14 —

Team goals — Cardiff City

Cardiff City to score

68.7% 1.45 —

Cardiff City not to score

31.3% 3.20 —

Cardiff City 2+ goals

29.2% 3.43 —

Cardiff City at most 1 goal

70.8% 1.41 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wolverhampton xG 1.59 xGA 0.77

W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 1.82 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
D 1.01 created, 0.65 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.84 created, 0.13 conceded against Watford

Cardiff City xG 2.05 xGA 1.54

L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
W 2.36 created, 0.89 conceded against Birmingham City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Wolverhampton

Team comparison

Wolverhampton attack → Cardiff City defence

Cardiff City attack → Wolverhampton defence

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Wolverhampton

Team goals — Cardiff City

What the model doesn't know