Aris Limassol 1:4 Omonia Nicosia: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

Aris Limassol Home 1.28 xG

Omonia Nicosia Away 2.20 xG

14 The scoreline reflected the chances

Aris Limassol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Omonia Nicosia won 4–1. The biggest difference was Omonia Nicosia's attack: 2.20 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.90).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Aris Limassol: 35%
Draw: 31%
Omonia Nicosia: 34% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Aris Limassol 1.33 1.28 -0.05

Omonia Nicosia 1.30 2.20 +0.90

Omonia Nicosia produced 0.90 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Aris Limassol Omonia Nicosia

Shots: 7; 17
On target: 5; 10
Inside the box: 5; 6
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Aris Limassol

1.39 xG created 1.55 xGA

L 0.70 created, 0.83 conceded against AEK Larnaca
L 0.64 created, 3.08 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 1.46 created, 1.28 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
L 0.85 created, 1.34 conceded against Pafos FC
L 2.30 created, 1.14 conceded against Apollon Limassol
D 2.39 created, 1.60 conceded against Apollon Limassol

Omonia Nicosia

2.40 xG created 1.07 xGA

W 2.16 created, 1.19 conceded against Apollon Limassol
W 3.08 created, 0.64 conceded against Aris Limassol
W 2.05 created, 1.91 conceded against Pafos FC
D 2.60 created, 0.84 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 1.57 created, 0.86 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
D 2.96 created, 0.95 conceded against Omonia Aradippou

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Aris Limassol: 0 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Aris Limassol against Omonia Nicosia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Aris Limassol to win	3.20	+12.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+9.8%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+7.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Aris Limassol	35.2%	29.4%	+5.8 pp	2.84
Draw	30.8%	26.9%	+3.9 pp	3.25
Omonia Nicosia	34.0%	43.7%	−9.8 pp	2.94

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.3%	58.9%	+0.4 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.7%	41.1%	−0.4 pp	2.46
Over 1.5 goals	78.0%	78.3%	−0.3 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	22.0%	21.7%	+0.3 pp	4.54
Over 2.5 goals	50.1%	57.1%	−7.1 pp	2.00
Under 2.5 goals	49.9%	42.9%	+7.1 pp	2.00

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Aris Limassol sample: 20 matches
Omonia Nicosia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.