Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 15h to kick-offEnosis Neon Ypsona FC – Apollon Limassol
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 25%
- Draw
- 33%
- Apollon Limassol
- 43%
| Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | Draw | Apollon Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.06 | 3.07 | 2.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 9 outcomes.
-
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- Model
- 24.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 11.6%
- Probability gap
- +13.0 pp
- Edge
- +96.9%
- Fair odds
- 4.06
- Market odds
- 8.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.27
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.4%
- Probability gap
- +11.2 pp
- Edge
- +41.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.07
- Market odds
- 4.33 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.22
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.0%
-
Apollon Limassol
- Model
- 42.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 67.1%
- Probability gap
- −24.3 pp
- Edge
- −40.9%
- Fair odds
- 2.34
- Market odds
- 1.38 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.45
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.0%
Outcomes with value
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Apollon Limassol not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Apollon Limassol at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Enosis Neon Ypsona FC to win
Model 24.6% vs. bookmaker 11.6%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Apollon Limassol
43% Apollon Limassol to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 9th
- Apollon Limassol attack v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 13th
- Apollon Limassol defence v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.21 vs -0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.97 – 1.32
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC v Apollon Limassol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.36 · 10th from 3 matches | 1.18 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.04 · 3rd from 3 matches | 1.52 · joint 6th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.32 · 6th from 3 matches | -0.34 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.62 · 5th from 3 matches | 1.04 · 11th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.12 | -0.21 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Apollon Limassol clean sheet
- 35%
- Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 0:1
- 10.9%
- 0:0
- 10.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC sample
- 20 matches
- Apollon Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Apollon Limassol
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.