Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFC Slovan Liberec 3:0 Mladá Boleslav
FC Slovan Liberec were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FC Slovan Liberec's attack: 3.19 xG against 1.82 projected (+1.37). Mladá Boleslav produced 0.69 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.34).
Goals
- 20' Vasil Kušej FC Slovan Liberec · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
- 55' Lukáš Mašek FC Slovan Liberec · 0.75 xG chance 2–0
- 66' Vojtěch Stránský FC Slovan Liberec · 0.04 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- FC Slovan Liberec
- 55% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Mladá Boleslav
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Slovan Liberec produced 1.37 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 26
- 10
- On target
- 8
- 3
- Inside the box
- 17
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.63
- 0.41
- Set-piece xG
- 1.62
- 0.28
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.25 for FC Slovan Liberec.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
36 shots · 3.94 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Slovan Liberec
- Mladá Boleslav
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.46 xG created 0.88 xGA
- L 0.88 created, 0.90 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 2.75 created, 0.52 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- D 1.48 created, 0.67 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- W 1.15 created, 0.38 conceded against FC Zlín
- W 2.19 created, 0.36 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 0.32 created, 2.47 conceded against FK Jablonec
1.64 xG created 1.80 xGA
- W 2.17 created, 1.57 conceded against SK Líšeň
- D 1.17 created, 2.48 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- W 1.49 created, 0.77 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- D 0.75 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Pardubice
- W 1.16 created, 2.18 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 3.10 created, 2.44 conceded against Baník Ostrava
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.90 | +3.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Slovan Liberec | 55.3% | 57.7% | −2.4 pp | 1.81 |
| Draw | 26.5% | 23.2% | +3.3 pp | 3.77 |
| Mladá Boleslav | 18.2% | 19.1% | −0.9 pp | 5.50 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Slovan Liberec to score | 86.2% | 84.2% | +1.9 pp | 1.16 |
| FC Slovan Liberec not to score | 13.8% | 15.8% | −1.9 pp | 7.22 |
| Mladá Boleslav to score | 67.1% | 64.5% | +2.6 pp | 1.49 |
| Mladá Boleslav not to score | 32.9% | 35.5% | −2.6 pp | 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 55.7% | +3.6 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.7% | 44.3% | −3.6 pp | 2.46 |
| FC Slovan Liberec 2+ goals | 56.4% | 57.7% | −1.3 pp | 1.77 |
| FC Slovan Liberec at most 1 goal | 43.6% | 42.3% | +1.3 pp | 2.29 |
| Mladá Boleslav 2+ goals | 27.5% | 29.1% | −1.6 pp | 3.64 |
| Mladá Boleslav at most 1 goal | 72.5% | 70.9% | +1.6 pp | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | 79.2% | +2.5 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.3% | 20.8% | −2.5 pp | 5.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 58.2% | −2.3 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 41.8% | +2.3 pp | 2.27 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Slovan Liberec sample
- 20 matches
- Mladá Boleslav sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.