Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFK Jablonec 1:2 FC Slovan Liberec
FC Slovan Liberec were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FK Jablonec's attack: 2.47 xG against 1.14 projected (+1.33). FC Slovan Liberec produced 0.32 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.97).
Goals
- 50' Patrik Dulay FC Slovan Liberec · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
- 70' Saidou Alioum Moubarak FK Jablonec · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
- 80' Vasil Kušej FC Slovan Liberec · 0.03 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- FK Jablonec
- 30%
- Draw
- 32%
- FC Slovan Liberec
- 38% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Jablonec produced 1.33 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 26
- 6
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 21
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 2.07
- 0.29
- Set-piece xG
- 0.49
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.58 for FK Jablonec and 0.32 for FC Slovan Liberec.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.89 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FK Jablonec
- FC Slovan Liberec
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.35 xG created 1.21 xGA
- W 3.52 created, 1.01 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- W 1.34 created, 0.37 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- W 0.61 created, 2.75 conceded against FK Pardubice
- W 0.36 created, 0.58 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- L 1.15 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Teplice
- D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
1.83 xG created 0.65 xGA
- W 2.50 created, 1.07 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- L 0.88 created, 0.90 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 2.75 created, 0.52 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- D 1.48 created, 0.67 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- W 1.15 created, 0.38 conceded against FC Zlín
- W 2.19 created, 0.36 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +7.6% | Won |
| Draw | 3.20 | +2.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 30.1% | 32.6% | −2.5 pp | 3.32 |
| Draw | 32.0% | 28.5% | +3.5 pp | 3.13 |
| FC Slovan Liberec | 37.9% | 38.9% | −1.0 pp | 2.64 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 48.0% | +7.2 pp | 1.81 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.8% | 52.0% | −7.2 pp | 2.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | 70.9% | +3.2 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 29.1% | −3.2 pp | 3.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 44.7% | +0.1 pp | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 55.3% | −0.1 pp | 1.81 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Jablonec sample
- 20 matches
- FC Slovan Liberec sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 48 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 48 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.