Bohemians Praha 1905 1:1 FK Jablonec: xG & match report · Czech First League

Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · Czech First League

Bohemians Praha 1905 Home 1.75 xG · 14 shots

FK Jablonec Away 1.15 xG · 15 shots

11 Bohemians Praha 1905 had the better chances, but it finished level

Bohemians Praha 1905 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Bohemians Praha 1905's attack: 1.75 xG against 1.42 projected (+0.33).

Goals

45' Martin Cedidla FK Jablonec · 0.34 xG chance 0–1
70' Aleš Čermák (pen.) Bohemians Praha 1905 · 0.82 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Bohemians Praha 1905: 40%
Draw: 31% What happened
FK Jablonec: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Bohemians Praha 1905 1.42 1.75 +0.33

FK Jablonec 1.19 1.15 -0.04

Bohemians Praha 1905 produced 0.33 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Bohemians Praha 1905 FK Jablonec

Shots: 14; 15
On target: 3; 2
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.44; 0.36
Set-piece xG: 0.51; 0.80
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.97 for Bohemians Praha 1905 and 1.15 for FK Jablonec.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.93 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Bohemians Praha 1905
FK Jablonec
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bohemians Praha 1905

1.32 xG created 1.89 xGA

L 1.60 created, 1.94 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
W 2.17 created, 2.58 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
L 0.73 created, 2.43 conceded against FK Teplice
D 0.68 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
W 1.94 created, 0.84 conceded against FC Zlín
D 0.81 created, 2.74 conceded against SK Slavia Praha

FK Jablonec

1.24 xG created 1.47 xGA

L 0.47 created, 3.33 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
W 3.52 created, 1.01 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
W 1.34 created, 0.37 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
W 0.61 created, 2.75 conceded against FK Pardubice
W 0.36 created, 0.58 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
L 1.15 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Teplice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Bohemians Praha 1905: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Bohemians Praha 1905 against FK Jablonec before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.75	+3.0%	Won
Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals	2.38	+1.8%	Lost
Bohemians Praha 1905 to score	1.29	+1.3%	Won
Bohemians Praha 1905 to win	2.50	+1.2%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bohemians Praha 1905	40.5%	36.4%	+4.1 pp	2.47
Draw	30.7%	28.0%	+2.7 pp	3.26
FK Jablonec	28.8%	35.7%	−6.8 pp	3.47

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bohemians Praha 1905 to score	78.8%	73.1%	+5.6 pp	1.27
Bohemians Praha 1905 not to score	21.2%	26.9%	−5.6 pp	4.71
FK Jablonec to score	72.5%	72.3%	+0.1 pp	1.38
FK Jablonec not to score	27.5%	27.7%	−0.1 pp	3.63
Both teams to score	58.9%	53.3%	+5.5 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.1%	46.7%	−5.5 pp	2.43
Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals	42.8%	39.2%	+3.6 pp	2.33
Bohemians Praha 1905 at most 1 goal	57.2%	60.8%	−3.6 pp	1.75
FK Jablonec 2+ goals	33.9%	37.5%	−3.6 pp	2.95
FK Jablonec at most 1 goal	66.1%	62.5%	+3.6 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	77.9%	73.1%	+4.8 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	22.1%	26.9%	−4.8 pp	4.52
Over 2.5 goals	49.8%	48.7%	+1.1 pp	2.01
Under 2.5 goals	50.2%	51.3%	−1.1 pp	1.99

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Bohemians Praha 1905 sample: 20 matches
FK Jablonec sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.