xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Zlín expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Czech First League · after 9 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Zlín's attacking and defensive expected goals in Czech First League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Zlín xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.87 xG per match
#16/16
Attack (xG per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.38
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.66
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 1.66
#4 Mladá Boleslav 1.45
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.43
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.39
#7 Baník Ostrava 1.34
#8 FK Pardubice 1.34
#9 FK Jablonec 1.32
#10 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.24
#11 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.23
#12 FK Teplice 1.20
#13 SK Líšeň 1.05
#14 FC Hradec Králové 1.03
#15 1. FC Slovácko 0.92
#16 FC Zlín 0.87
League avg
1.34
Total
7.80 9 matches
Defence
1.44 xGA per match
#12/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.86
#2 FK Jablonec 1.01
#3 SK Slavia Praha 1.02
#4 FC Hradec Králové 1.05
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.10
#6 FK Pardubice 1.20
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.21
#8 AC Sparta Praha 1.25
#9 FK Teplice 1.28
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.37
#11 SK Líšeň 1.42
#12 FC Zlín 1.44
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.52
#14 1. FC Slovácko 1.88
#15 Baník Ostrava 1.89
#16 Mladá Boleslav 2.06
League avg
1.34
Total
12.92 9 matches
xG difference
-0.57 xGD per match
#14/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha +1.36
#2 FC Slovan Liberec +0.80
#3 AC Sparta Praha +0.41
#4 Viktoria Plzeň +0.32
#5 FK Jablonec +0.31
#6 FK Pardubice +0.14
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc +0.02
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 +0.02
#9 FC Hradec Králové -0.02
#10 FK Teplice -0.08
#11 FC Zbrojovka Brno -0.28
#12 SK Líšeň -0.37
#13 Baník Ostrava -0.55
#14 FC Zlín -0.57
#15 Mladá Boleslav -0.62
#16 1. FC Slovácko -0.96
League avg
0.00
Total
-5.12 9 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.90 xPts per match
#15/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.11
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 1.90
#3 AC Sparta Praha 1.68
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 1.61
#5 FK Jablonec 1.59
#6 FK Pardubice 1.46
#7 FC Hradec Králové 1.39
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.39
#9 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.33
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.31
#11 FK Teplice 1.30
#12 SK Líšeň 1.11
#13 Mladá Boleslav 1.03
#14 Baník Ostrava 1.02
#15 FC Zlín 0.90
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
8.13 vs 1 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 9 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Zlín's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Czech First League. They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.57 per match, from low shot volume and the league's lowest chance quality. Their 8 goals are 0.20 above 7.80 xG, while 1 point is 7.13 below 8.13 xPts. After only 9 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
8 7.80 +0.20 scored 0.20 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
19 12.92 +6.08 conceded 6.08 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1 8.13 -7.13 7.13 points below xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Zlín are 0.20 goals above their xG after 9 matches.

Goals
8
xG
7.80
Gap
+0.20
Sat 25/07 Fri 31/07 Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.81 -0.73 -1.57 -0.63 -1.01 +0.09 +0.13 -0.41 +0.20 -0.81 +0.08 -0.84 +0.94 -0.38 +1.10 +0.04 -0.54 +0.61 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Zlín: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 25/07 Baník Ostrava 0 0.81 -0.81 -0.81
Fri 31/07 AC Sparta Praha 1 0.92 +0.08 -0.73
Sat 08/08 Bohemians Praha 1905 0 0.84 -0.84 -1.57
Sat 15/08 Viktoria Plzeň 2 1.06 +0.94 -0.63
Sat 22/08 FC Slovan Liberec 0 0.38 -0.38 -1.01
Sat 29/08 FC Zbrojovka Brno 2 0.90 +1.10 +0.09
Sun 06/09 FK Teplice 1 0.96 +0.04 +0.13
Sun 13/09 FC Hradec Králové 1 1.54 -0.54 -0.41
Sun 20/09 FK Jablonec 1 0.39 +0.61 +0.20

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FC Zlín xG trend

Current form -0.36 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 9 matches. The worst was against AC Sparta Praha on Fri 31/07 (-1.19).

npxG · last 6
0.86
npxGA · last 6
1.22
-2 -1 0 +1 -0.24 Sat 25/07 -1.19 Fri 31/07 -0.37 Sat 08/08 -0.48 Sat 15/08 -0.77 Sat 22/08 -0.30 Sat 29/08 -0.40 Sun 06/09 +0.58 Sun 13/09 -0.78 Sun 20/09 -0.44 season avg
FC Zlín: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 25/07 Baník Ostrava 0.81 1.05 -0.24 -0.24
Fri 31/07 AC Sparta Praha 0.92 2.11 -1.19 -0.72
Sat 08/08 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.84 1.21 -0.37 -0.60
Sat 15/08 Viktoria Plzeň 1.06 1.54 -0.48 -0.57
Sat 22/08 FC Slovan Liberec 0.38 1.15 -0.77 -0.61
Sat 29/08 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.85 1.15 -0.30 -0.56
Sun 06/09 FK Teplice 0.96 1.36 -0.40 -0.54
Sun 13/09 FC Hradec Králové 1.54 0.96 +0.58 -0.40
Sun 20/09 FK Jablonec 0.39 1.17 -0.78 -0.44

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.86 npxG and 1.30 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 2 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
+0.07 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
tied number 7 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.07 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · number 2 hardest of 16

  1. FK Jablonec Away +0.21
  2. FC Hradec Králové Home −0.08
  3. FK Teplice Home −0.14
  4. FC Zbrojovka Brno Away −0.12
  5. FC Slovan Liberec Home +0.30
  6. Viktoria Plzeň Away +0.36
  7. Bohemians Praha 1905 Home 0.00
  8. AC Sparta Praha Away +0.37
  9. Baník Ostrava Home −0.24

Last 5

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 16

  1. FK Jablonec Away +0.21
  2. FC Hradec Králové Home −0.08
  3. FK Teplice Home −0.14
  4. FC Zbrojovka Brno Away −0.12
  5. FC Slovan Liberec Home +0.30

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Zlín shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. FC Zlín take 11.9 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.07 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #12 in Czech First League for volume and #16 for quality. 57% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 32% of their npxG (league 26%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.9 shots per match
#12/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 17.3
#2 AC Sparta Praha 16.6
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 16.2
#4 FK Jablonec 15.7
#5 FK Teplice 14.5
#6 Viktoria Plzeň 14.0
#7 FK Pardubice 13.0
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 12.6
#9 Baník Ostrava 12.4
=10 FC Hradec Králové 12.0
=10 Mladá Boleslav 12.0
#12 FC Zlín 11.9
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 11.8
#14 1. FC Slovácko 11.0
#15 SK Sigma Olomouc 10.8
#16 SK Líšeň 9.8
League avg
13.2
Total
107 shots from 9 matches
Chance quality
0.07 npxG per shot
#16/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.13
#2 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#3 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.11
#4 SK Líšeň 0.11
#5 FC Slovan Liberec 0.11
#6 FK Pardubice 0.10
#7 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.10
#8 Baník Ostrava 0.10
#9 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.09
#11 FK Jablonec 0.09
#12 FC Hradec Králové 0.09
#13 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#14 1. FC Slovácko 0.08
#15 FK Teplice 0.08
#16 FC Zlín 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
7.75 npxG from 107 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.9 shots per match
#14/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 10.7
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 10.8
#3 AC Sparta Praha 11.6
#4 FK Jablonec 11.7
#5 1. FC Slovácko 12.2
=6 SK Sigma Olomouc 12.4
=6 Viktoria Plzeň 12.4
#8 FC Zbrojovka Brno 13.0
#9 FK Pardubice 13.3
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.6
#11 FC Hradec Králové 13.9
#12 FK Teplice 14.6
#13 Baník Ostrava 14.7
#14 FC Zlín 14.9
#15 SK Líšeň 15.0
#16 Mladá Boleslav 17.8
League avg
13.2
Total
134 shots allowed from 9 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#6/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.07
#2 FC Hradec Králové 0.08
#3 FK Jablonec 0.08
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#5 FK Pardubice 0.09
#6 FC Zlín 0.09
#7 FK Teplice 0.09
#8 SK Líšeň 0.09
#9 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.09
#10 SK Slavia Praha 0.10
#11 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#12 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#13 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#14 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.12
#15 Baník Ostrava 0.13
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
11.70 npxGA from 134 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

57% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 61 of 107 shots over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 84 of 134 shots allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

68% open play · 32% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 2.4 of 7.7 npxG over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

79% open play · 21% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 2.1 of 9.9 npxG allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Zlín home and away xG

FC Zlín per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 4
xG / match 0.91 0.82
xGA / match 1.28 1.63
xGD / match -0.38 -0.81
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.03 0.74

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Zlín match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
4
xG / match
0.82
xGA / match
1.63
xGD / match
-0.81
Points
1 of 12
  1. Sun 20/09 FK Jablonec A xG 0.39 xGA 1.16 xGD -0.77
  2. Sat 29/08 FC Zbrojovka Brno A xG 0.90 xGA 1.02 xGD -0.12
  3. Sat 15/08 Viktoria Plzeň A xG 1.06 xGA 2.22 P xGD -1.16
  4. Fri 31/07 AC Sparta Praha A xG 0.92 xGA 2.11 xGD -1.19

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Zlín in Czech First League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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