Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFK Jablonec 1:1 FC Zlín
FK Jablonec were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FK Jablonec's attack: 1.16 xG against 1.85 projected (−0.69). FC Zlín produced 0.39 xG against 0.87 projected (−0.48).
Goals
- 3' Daniel Šmiga FC Zlín · 0.22 xG chance 0–1
- 90' Garang Kuol FK Jablonec · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- FK Jablonec
- 60%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- FC Zlín
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Jablonec produced 0.69 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 27
- 6
- On target
- 8
- 4
- Inside the box
- 21
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.84
- 0.11
- Set-piece xG
- 0.32
- 0.29
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.39 for FC Zlín.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 1.56 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FK Jablonec
- FC Zlín
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.47 xG created 0.94 xGA
- W 0.36 created, 0.58 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- L 1.15 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Teplice
- D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- L 2.47 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- W 2.87 created, 0.85 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 0.79 created, 1.32 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
0.95 xG created 1.44 xGA
- L 0.84 created, 1.94 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- L 1.06 created, 2.22 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- L 0.38 created, 1.15 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- L 0.90 created, 1.02 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- L 0.96 created, 1.35 conceded against FK Teplice
- L 1.54 created, 0.96 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +8.9% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +2.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 60.0% | 63.2% | −3.1 pp | 1.67 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 22.8% | +2.8 pp | 3.90 |
| FC Zlín | 14.3% | 14.0% | +0.3 pp | 6.98 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 46.7% | +7.8 pp | 1.84 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.6% | 53.3% | −7.8 pp | 2.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | 75.0% | +4.6 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.4% | 25.0% | −4.6 pp | 4.89 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 51.3% | +1.4 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 48.7% | −1.4 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Jablonec sample
- 20 matches
- FC Zlín sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.