AC Sparta Praha 2:0 FK Jablonec: xG & match report · Czech First League

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Czech First League

AC Sparta Praha Home 1.32 xG · 18 shots

FK Jablonec Away 0.79 xG · 8 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

AC Sparta Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FK Jablonec's attack: 0.79 xG against 1.18 projected (−0.39).

Goals

19' Josimar Alcócer AC Sparta Praha · 0.26 xG chance 1–0
56' John Mercado AC Sparta Praha · 0.31 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AC Sparta Praha: 45% What happened
Draw: 29%
FK Jablonec: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AC Sparta Praha 1.56 1.32 -0.24

FK Jablonec 1.18 0.79 -0.39

FK Jablonec produced 0.39 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AC Sparta Praha FK Jablonec

Shots: 18; 8
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 10; 6
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.00; 0.60
Set-piece xG: 0.30; 0.19
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.33 for AC Sparta Praha.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.09 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AC Sparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AC Sparta Praha

1.72 xG created 1.24 xGA

W 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Zlín
L 0.77 created, 1.49 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
W 2.12 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice
W 1.78 created, 1.21 conceded against SK Líšeň
L 2.34 created, 1.83 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
L 1.18 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Hradec Králové

FK Jablonec

1.43 xG created 1.17 xGA

W 0.61 created, 2.75 conceded against FK Pardubice
W 0.36 created, 0.58 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
L 1.15 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Teplice
D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
L 2.47 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
W 2.87 created, 0.85 conceded against Baník Ostrava

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AC Sparta Praha: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AC Sparta Praha against FK Jablonec before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Jablonec to win	5.50	+43.4%	Lost
FK Jablonec 2+ goals	3.75	+26.1%	Lost
AC Sparta Praha not to score	6.50	+19.0%	Lost
AC Sparta Praha at most 1 goal	2.20	+14.8%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+14.6%	Lost
FK Jablonec to score	1.53	+10.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+9.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+2.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Sparta Praha	44.5%	59.8%	−15.3 pp	2.25
Draw	29.4%	23.5%	+5.9 pp	3.40
FK Jablonec	26.1%	16.7%	+9.4 pp	3.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Sparta Praha to score	81.7%	85.4%	−3.7 pp	1.22
AC Sparta Praha not to score	18.3%	14.6%	+3.7 pp	5.46
FK Jablonec to score	72.2%	60.8%	+11.4 pp	1.38
FK Jablonec not to score	27.8%	39.2%	−11.4 pp	3.60
Both teams to score	60.7%	52.0%	+8.7 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	48.0%	−8.7 pp	2.54
AC Sparta Praha 2+ goals	47.8%	57.7%	−9.8 pp	2.09
AC Sparta Praha at most 1 goal	52.2%	42.3%	+9.8 pp	1.92
FK Jablonec 2+ goals	33.6%	25.0%	+8.6 pp	2.97
FK Jablonec at most 1 goal	66.4%	75.0%	−8.6 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	80.1%	79.4%	+0.7 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	19.9%	20.6%	−0.7 pp	5.03
Over 2.5 goals	53.2%	57.9%	−4.7 pp	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	46.8%	42.1%	+4.7 pp	2.14

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AC Sparta Praha sample: 20 matches
FK Jablonec sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.