Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:30
Full timeCracovia 3:2 Wieczysta Kraków
Cracovia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Wieczysta Kraków's attack: 1.98 xG against 1.08 projected (+0.90). Cracovia produced 2.08 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.64).
Goals
- 23' Mateusz Wieteska Wieczysta Kraków · 0.31 xG chance 0–1
- 45' Mauro Perković Cracovia · 0.15 xG chance 1–1
- 53' Lisandro Semedo (pen.) Wieczysta Kraków · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
- 78' Ajdin Hasić Cracovia · 0.07 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Ajdin Hasić Cracovia · 0.02 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- Cracovia
- 44% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Wieczysta Kraków
- 25%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Wieczysta Kraków produced 0.90 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 12
- On target
- 6
- 4
- Inside the box
- 18
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.17
- Open play xG
- 1.20
- 0.78
- Set-piece xG
- 0.93
- 0.43
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.08 for Cracovia and 1.19 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
36 shots · 4.16 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Cracovia
- Wieczysta Kraków
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.52 xG created 0.87 xGA
- D 1.46 created, 1.64 conceded against Motor Lublin
- D 1.41 created, 0.25 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- D 0.88 created, 0.79 conceded against Lech Poznań
- L 1.15 created, 0.93 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- D 1.48 created, 0.75 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- W 2.74 created, 0.85 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
1.56 xG created 1.51 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cracovia sample
- 20 matches
- Wieczysta Kraków sample
- 3 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Wieczysta Kraków has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.