Górnik Zabrze 2:1 Lech Poznań: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Górnik Zabrze Home 1.53 xG · 12 shots

Lech Poznań Away 0.50 xG · 10 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Lech Poznań were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Górnik Zabrze won 2–1. The biggest difference was Lech Poznań's attack: 0.50 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.95). Górnik Zabrze produced 1.53 xG against 1.11 projected (+0.42).

Goals

36' Allahyar Sayyadmanesh Lech Poznań · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
76' Erik Prekop Górnik Zabrze · 0.41 xG chance 1–1
80' Erik Prekop Górnik Zabrze · 0.22 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Górnik Zabrze: 26% What happened
Draw: 31%
Lech Poznań: 43%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Górnik Zabrze 1.11 1.53 +0.42

Lech Poznań 1.45 0.50 -0.95

Lech Poznań produced 0.95 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Górnik Zabrze Lech Poznań

Shots: 12; 10
On target: 4; 1
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.76; 0.36
Set-piece xG: 0.82; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.53 for Górnik Zabrze and 0.50 for Lech Poznań.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 2.07 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Górnik Zabrze
Lech Poznań
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Górnik Zabrze

1.62 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 0.67 created, 1.54 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
W 2.28 created, 2.24 conceded against Radomiak Radom
W 0.60 created, 1.69 conceded against Wisła Kraków
L 2.50 created, 1.56 conceded against GKS Katowice
W 2.22 created, 0.84 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
W 1.44 created, 0.45 conceded against Cracovia

Lech Poznań

2.02 xG created 0.77 xGA

D 0.79 created, 0.88 conceded against Cracovia
W 1.69 created, 0.99 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
W 3.12 created, 1.06 conceded against Piast Gliwice
W 1.89 created, 0.80 conceded against Widzew Łódź
W 1.78 created, 0.48 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
W 2.84 created, 0.40 conceded against Raków Częstochowa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Górnik Zabrze: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Górnik Zabrze against Lech Poznań before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+15.8%	Lost
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	1.62	+11.6%	Lost
Górnik Zabrze not to score	3.75	+11.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.80	+10.6%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+4.3%	Lost
Lech Poznań at most 1 goal	1.80	+1.0%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.38	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Górnik Zabrze	26.2%	33.3%	−7.1 pp	3.81
Draw	30.7%	26.9%	+3.8 pp	3.26
Lech Poznań	43.1%	39.8%	+3.3 pp	2.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Górnik Zabrze to score	70.3%	75.0%	−4.7 pp	1.42
Górnik Zabrze not to score	29.7%	25.0%	+4.7 pp	3.37
Lech Poznań to score	79.2%	78.3%	+0.9 pp	1.26
Lech Poznań not to score	20.8%	21.7%	−0.9 pp	4.82
Both teams to score	57.5%	60.8%	−3.3 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.5%	39.2%	+3.3 pp	2.35
Górnik Zabrze 2+ goals	30.9%	42.3%	−11.4 pp	3.23
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	69.1%	57.7%	+11.4 pp	1.45
Lech Poznań 2+ goals	43.9%	48.5%	−4.6 pp	2.28
Lech Poznań at most 1 goal	56.1%	51.5%	+4.6 pp	1.78
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	80.8%	−3.8 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	19.2%	+3.8 pp	4.34
Over 2.5 goals	48.5%	58.9%	−10.3 pp	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	51.5%	41.1%	+10.3 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Górnik Zabrze sample: 20 matches
Lech Poznań sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.