Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 14:45
Full timeMotor Lublin 0:2 Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Motor Lublin's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.34 projected (−0.33).
Goals
- 78' Juande Rivas Piast Gliwice · 0.20 xG chance 0–1
- 90' Szczepan Mucha Piast Gliwice · 0.16 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Motor Lublin
- 33%
- Draw
- 30%
- Piast Gliwice
- 38% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Motor Lublin produced 0.33 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 13
- On target
- 1
- 6
- Inside the box
- 7
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 0.86
- 1.28
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.49
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.03 for Motor Lublin and 1.75 for Piast Gliwice.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.80 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Motor Lublin
- Piast Gliwice
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.37 xG created 1.67 xGA
- L 0.54 created, 2.33 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- D 1.15 created, 2.49 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 2.01 created, 0.89 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 0.92 created, 2.35 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 2.92 created, 1.10 conceded against GKS Katowice
- D 0.68 created, 0.88 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
1.06 xG created 1.86 xGA
- L 0.47 created, 0.67 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 0.75 created, 1.09 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.79 created, 3.61 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- L 1.06 created, 3.12 conceded against Lech Poznań
- L 1.16 created, 1.68 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- D 1.10 created, 0.98 conceded against Legia Warszawa
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice to win | 2.88 | +8.0% | Won |
| Motor Lublin at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +4.1% | Won |
| Motor Lublin not to score | 4.33 | +1.3% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +1.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | 32.7% | 41.5% | −8.8 pp | 3.06 |
| Draw | 29.8% | 26.8% | +2.9 pp | 3.36 |
| Piast Gliwice | 37.6% | 31.7% | +5.9 pp | 2.66 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin to score | 76.6% | 78.3% | −1.7 pp | 1.31 |
| Motor Lublin not to score | 23.4% | 21.7% | +1.7 pp | 4.28 |
| Piast Gliwice to score | 79.0% | 75.0% | +4.0 pp | 1.27 |
| Piast Gliwice not to score | 21.0% | 25.0% | −4.0 pp | 4.76 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 58.9% | +3.3 pp | 1.61 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.8% | 41.1% | −3.3 pp | 2.65 |
| Motor Lublin 2+ goals | 39.7% | 46.3% | −6.6 pp | 2.52 |
| Motor Lublin at most 1 goal | 60.3% | 53.7% | +6.6 pp | 1.66 |
| Piast Gliwice 2+ goals | 43.5% | 41.1% | +2.4 pp | 2.30 |
| Piast Gliwice at most 1 goal | 56.5% | 58.9% | −2.4 pp | 1.77 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | 78.3% | +2.4 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.3% | 21.7% | −2.4 pp | 5.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 56.3% | −2.1 pp | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 43.7% | +2.1 pp | 2.18 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Motor Lublin sample
- 20 matches
- Piast Gliwice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.