Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timePiast Gliwice 3:0 GKS Katowice
Piast Gliwice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Piast Gliwice's attack: 0.87 xG against 1.69 projected (−0.82). GKS Katowice produced 1.55 xG against 1.28 projected (+0.27).
Goals
- 5' Leandro Sanca Piast Gliwice · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 35' Juande Rivas Piast Gliwice · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
- 85' Hugo Vallejo Piast Gliwice · 0.03 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Piast Gliwice
- 46% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- GKS Katowice
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Piast Gliwice produced 0.82 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 21
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 8
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.51
- 1.27
- Set-piece xG
- 0.32
- 0.27
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.87 for Piast Gliwice and 1.55 for GKS Katowice.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.37 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Piast Gliwice
- GKS Katowice
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.24 xG created 1.92 xGA
- L 0.75 created, 1.09 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.79 created, 3.61 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- L 1.06 created, 3.12 conceded against Lech Poznań
- L 1.16 created, 1.68 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- D 1.10 created, 0.98 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 1.57 created, 1.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
1.57 xG created 1.94 xGA
- D 0.87 created, 1.00 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- L 1.20 created, 2.76 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- W 1.80 created, 0.73 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 1.10 created, 2.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
- W 2.90 created, 1.73 conceded against Wisła Płock
- W 1.56 created, 2.50 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice to win | 2.35 | +7.3% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +1.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 45.7% | 38.7% | +7.0 pp | 2.19 |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.7% | +1.2 pp | 3.58 |
| GKS Katowice | 26.4% | 34.6% | −8.2 pp | 3.79 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 58.9% | +5.7 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.4% | 41.1% | −5.7 pp | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | 79.2% | +4.4 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.4% | 20.8% | −4.4 pp | 6.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 57.1% | +1.7 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 42.9% | −1.7 pp | 2.43 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Piast Gliwice sample
- 20 matches
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.