Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeLillestrøm SK 2:0 Vålerenga IF
Lillestrøm SK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Lillestrøm SK's attack: 0.70 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.78). Vålerenga IF produced 1.57 xG against 1.25 projected (+0.32).
Goals
- 25' Ruben Gabrielsen Lillestrøm SK · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Thomas Lehne Olsen Lillestrøm SK · 0.15 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Lillestrøm SK
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Vålerenga IF
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Lillestrøm SK produced 0.78 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 17
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 6
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.43
- 0.77
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.83
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.59 for Vålerenga IF.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.30 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Lillestrøm SK
- Vålerenga IF
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.77 xG created 1.91 xGA
1.76 xG created 1.92 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | +36.2% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.50 | +31.6% | Lost |
| Lillestrøm SK not to score | 6.50 | +31.5% | Lost |
| Lillestrøm SK at most 1 goal | 2.25 | +24.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.80 | +14.0% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.75 | +7.5% | Won |
| Vålerenga IF at most 1 goal | 1.67 | +6.5% | Won |
| Vålerenga IF not to score | 4.00 | +3.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrøm SK | 40.6% | 47.9% | −7.3 pp | 2.46 |
| Draw | 30.0% | 24.6% | +5.4 pp | 3.33 |
| Vålerenga IF | 29.4% | 27.5% | +1.9 pp | 3.40 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrøm SK to score | 79.8% | 85.4% | −5.6 pp | 1.25 |
| Lillestrøm SK not to score | 20.2% | 14.6% | +5.6 pp | 4.94 |
| Vålerenga IF to score | 74.2% | 76.6% | −2.4 pp | 1.35 |
| Vålerenga IF not to score | 25.8% | 23.4% | +2.4 pp | 3.87 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 66.3% | −5.3 pp | 1.64 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.1% | 33.7% | +5.3 pp | 2.56 |
| Lillestrøm SK 2+ goals | 44.7% | 58.9% | −14.2 pp | 2.24 |
| Lillestrøm SK at most 1 goal | 55.3% | 41.1% | +14.2 pp | 1.81 |
| Vålerenga IF 2+ goals | 36.1% | 44.3% | −8.2 pp | 2.77 |
| Vålerenga IF at most 1 goal | 63.9% | 55.7% | +8.2 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | 85.4% | −5.6 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.2% | 14.6% | +5.6 pp | 4.94 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 67.3% | −14.6 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 32.7% | +14.6 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lillestrøm SK sample
- 19 matches
- Vålerenga IF sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.