Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeRosenborg BK 4:0 HamKam
Rosenborg BK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Rosenborg BK's attack: 2.49 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.90). HamKam produced 0.48 xG against 0.92 projected (−0.44).
Goals
- 1' Emil Konradsen Ceide Rosenborg BK · 0.24 xG chance 1–0
- 52' Noah Sahsah Rosenborg BK · 0.06 xG chance 2–0
- 59' Amin Chiakha Rosenborg BK · 0.03 xG chance 3–0
- 76' Amin Chiakha Rosenborg BK · 0.94 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Rosenborg BK
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- HamKam
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Rosenborg BK produced 0.90 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 5
- On target
- 9
- 2
- Inside the box
- 12
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 2.09
- 0.27
- Set-piece xG
- 0.39
- 0.22
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.51 for Rosenborg BK and 0.48 for HamKam.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.97 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Rosenborg BK
- HamKam
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.82 xG created 1.53 xGA
0.86 xG created 1.50 xGA
- L 0.19 created, 2.50 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
- L 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
- W 1.40 created, 0.69 conceded against Vålerenga IF
- D 1.59 created, 0.63 conceded against Aalesunds FK
- L 0.24 created, 2.38 conceded against SK Brann
- D 0.71 created, 1.13 conceded against Kristiansund BK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam to win | 9.00 | +70.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.75 | +67.8% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +45.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +42.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg BK | 51.9% | 73.4% | −21.5 pp | 1.93 |
| Draw | 29.2% | 16.2% | +13.0 pp | 3.43 |
| HamKam | 18.9% | 10.4% | +8.5 pp | 5.29 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 52.0% | +1.8 pp | 1.86 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.2% | 48.0% | −1.8 pp | 2.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 84.2% | −8.4 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 15.8% | +8.4 pp | 4.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 65.2% | −18.0 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 34.8% | +18.0 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rosenborg BK sample
- 20 matches
- HamKam sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.