Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 18:00
13d 18h to kick-offViking FK – Fredrikstad FK
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Viking FK
- 55%
- Draw
- 28%
- Fredrikstad FK
- 17%
| Viking FK | Draw | Fredrikstad FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.83 | 3.60 | 5.73 |
- Total goals
- 2.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Viking FK
55% Viking FK to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 9th
- Viking FK attack v Fredrikstad FK defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 13th
- Viking FK defence v Fredrikstad FK attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.44 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 0.93
- Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Viking FK | Fredrikstad FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.09 · 2nd | 1.20 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.16 · 2nd | 1.67 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.93 · 2nd | -0.47 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd | 1.10 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.44 | -0.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Viking FK clean sheet
- 36%
- Viking FK 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Viking FK sample
- 20 matches
- Fredrikstad FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Viking FK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Fredrikstad FK
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.