Viking FK 3:0 Lillestrøm SK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Viking FK Home 2.98 xG · 20 shots

Lillestrøm SK Away 1.77 xG · 14 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

Viking FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Viking FK's attack: 2.98 xG against 1.63 projected (+1.35). Lillestrøm SK produced 1.77 xG against 0.94 projected (+0.83).

Goals

8' Kristoffer Haugen Viking FK · 0.24 xG chance 1–0
43' Gianni Stensness Viking FK · 0.16 xG chance 2–0
79' Peter Christiansen (pen.) Viking FK · 0.82 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Viking FK: 52% What happened
Draw: 29%
Lillestrøm SK: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Viking FK 1.63 2.98 +1.35

Lillestrøm SK 0.94 1.77 +0.83

Viking FK produced 1.35 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Viking FK Lillestrøm SK

Shots: 20; 14
On target: 8; 5
Inside the box: 16; 11
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.14; 1.66
Set-piece xG: 0.68; 0.08
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.82 for Viking FK and 1.70 for Lillestrøm SK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 4.38 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Viking FK
Lillestrøm SK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Viking FK

2.52 xG created 1.43 xGA

W 1.57 created, 2.48 conceded against IK Start
W 2.83 created, 2.57 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 1.86 created, 1.37 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 2.42 created, 0.87 conceded against Aalesunds FK
D 2.16 created, 0.62 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
W 4.27 created, 0.70 conceded against Kristiansund BK

Lillestrøm SK

1.66 xG created 2.03 xGA

L 0.38 created, 2.15 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
L 2.39 created, 2.45 conceded against Rosenborg BK
D 2.80 created, 0.92 conceded against KFUM Oslo
L 2.34 created, 3.11 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
W 1.33 created, 1.97 conceded against SK Brann
W 0.70 created, 1.57 conceded against Vålerenga IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Viking FK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Lillestrøm SK 1:2 Viking FK 22/07/2026 xG 1.35 – 0.87

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Viking FK against Lillestrøm SK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Viking FK not to score	11.00	+89.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+84.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.50	+79.9%	Lost
Viking FK at most 1 goal	3.50	+75.0%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+36.8%	Lost
Lillestrøm SK to win	6.50	+22.5%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.50	+12.9%	Won
Lillestrøm SK not to score	3.00	+7.5%	Won
Lillestrøm SK at most 1 goal	1.40	+6.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viking FK	52.4%	66.2%	−13.9 pp	1.91
Draw	28.8%	19.5%	+9.3 pp	3.47
Lillestrøm SK	18.8%	14.3%	+4.6 pp	5.31

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viking FK to score	82.8%	91.3%	−8.5 pp	1.21
Viking FK not to score	17.2%	8.7%	+8.5 pp	5.82
Lillestrøm SK to score	64.2%	68.7%	−4.6 pp	1.56
Lillestrøm SK not to score	35.8%	31.3%	+4.6 pp	2.79
Both teams to score	54.9%	62.5%	−7.6 pp	1.82
Both teams not to score	45.1%	37.5%	+7.6 pp	2.22
Viking FK 2+ goals	50.0%	73.1%	−23.1 pp	2.00
Viking FK at most 1 goal	50.0%	26.9%	+23.1 pp	2.00
Lillestrøm SK 2+ goals	24.1%	33.7%	−9.7 pp	4.16
Lillestrøm SK at most 1 goal	75.9%	66.3%	+9.7 pp	1.32
Over 1.5 goals	76.9%	88.1%	−11.2 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.1%	11.9%	+11.2 pp	4.33
Over 2.5 goals	48.6%	72.9%	−24.3 pp	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	51.4%	27.1%	+24.3 pp	1.95

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Viking FK sample: 20 matches
Lillestrøm SK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.