Go Ahead Eagles 3:1 ADO Den Haag: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 12:15

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Match report · Eredivisie

Go Ahead Eagles Home 1.01 xG · 11 shots

ADO Den Haag Away 0.99 xG · 16 shots

31 The chances were evenly matched

Go Ahead Eagles were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Go Ahead Eagles's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.71 projected (−0.70). ADO Den Haag produced 0.99 xG against 1.68 projected (−0.69).

Goals

38' Søren Tengstedt Go Ahead Eagles · 0.18 xG chance 1–0
64' Victor Edvardsen Go Ahead Eagles · 0.21 xG chance 2–0
78' Evan Rottier ADO Den Haag · 0.19 xG chance 2–1
90' Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson Go Ahead Eagles · 0.19 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Go Ahead Eagles: 37% What happened
Draw: 26%
ADO Den Haag: 36%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Go Ahead Eagles 1.71 1.01 -0.70

ADO Den Haag 1.68 0.99 -0.69

Go Ahead Eagles produced 0.70 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Go Ahead Eagles ADO Den Haag

Shots: 11; 16
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 6; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.06
Open play xG: 0.76; 0.86
Set-piece xG: 0.25; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.00 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Go Ahead Eagles
ADO Den Haag
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Go Ahead Eagles

1.54 xG created 2.32 xGA

D 0.82 created, 1.72 conceded against FC Groningen
D 1.79 created, 1.52 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
D 2.08 created, 1.89 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
L 0.32 created, 4.44 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
W 2.43 created, 1.51 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
D 1.77 created, 2.83 conceded against Feyenoord

ADO Den Haag

0.98 xG created 2.94 xGA

L 0.95 created, 2.67 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
L 1.01 created, 3.20 conceded against FC Groningen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Go Ahead Eagles against ADO Den Haag before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
ADO Den Haag to win	4.75	+71.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+10.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+4.4%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+1.4%	Won
Draw	3.80	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles	37.4%	55.0%	−17.6 pp	2.67
Draw	26.5%	25.0%	+1.5 pp	3.77
ADO Den Haag	36.1%	20.0%	+16.1 pp	2.77

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	72.1%	60.8%	+11.3 pp	1.39
Both teams not to score	27.9%	39.2%	−11.3 pp	3.59
Over 1.5 goals	88.7%	82.8%	+5.9 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.3%	17.2%	−5.9 pp	8.87
Over 2.5 goals	68.1%	61.0%	+7.1 pp	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	31.9%	39.0%	−7.1 pp	3.14

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Go Ahead Eagles sample: 20 matches
ADO Den Haag sample: 2 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

ADO Den Haag has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.