SC Cambuur 2:5 Feyenoord: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 16:45

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Match report · Eredivisie

SC Cambuur Home 1.07 xG · 11 shots

Feyenoord Away 2.57 xG · 15 shots

25 The scoreline reflected the chances

Feyenoord were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Feyenoord's attack: 2.57 xG against 2.06 projected (+0.51). SC Cambuur produced 1.07 xG against 1.35 projected (−0.28).

Goals

17' Gjivai Zechiël Feyenoord · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
26' Luciano Valente Feyenoord · 0.21 xG chance 0–2
43' Thijs Jansen (o.g.) Feyenoord · 0.27 xG chance 0–3
45' Ayase Ueda (pen.) Feyenoord · 0.82 xG chance 0–4
70' Rafik El Arguioui SC Cambuur · 0.52 xG chance 1–4
80' Rafik El Arguioui SC Cambuur · 0.10 xG chance 2–4
83' Gjivai Zechiël Feyenoord · 0.29 xG chance 2–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Cambuur: 22%
Draw: 25%
Feyenoord: 53% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Cambuur 1.35 1.07 -0.28

Feyenoord 2.06 2.57 +0.51

Feyenoord produced 0.51 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Cambuur Feyenoord

Shots: 11; 15
On target: 4; 8
Inside the box: 9; 9
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.19
Open play xG: 1.01; 1.80
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.27
Penalties: 0; 1

SC Cambuur's shots add up to 1.10 xG and Feyenoord's to 2.89; the published figures are 1.07 and 2.57.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.99 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SC Cambuur
Feyenoord
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Cambuur

1.61 xG created 2.39 xGA

L 0.72 created, 2.87 conceded against Excelsior
L 2.51 created, 1.91 conceded against Fortuna Sittard

Feyenoord

2.57 xG created 1.31 xGA

D 1.68 created, 2.04 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
W 1.64 created, 1.46 conceded against FC Groningen
W 2.50 created, 0.77 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
W 3.21 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
W 3.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
D 2.83 created, 1.77 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Cambuur against Feyenoord before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Cambuur to win	11.00	+145.0%	Lost
SC Cambuur 2+ goals	4.50	+80.0%	Won
Draw	5.75	+41.3%	Lost
Feyenoord at most 1 goal	3.50	+28.7%	Lost
SC Cambuur to score	1.67	+28.0%	Won
Both teams to score	1.80	+25.6%	Won
Feyenoord not to score	11.00	+18.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Cambuur	22.3%	8.6%	+13.6 pp	4.49
Draw	24.6%	16.5%	+8.0 pp	4.07
Feyenoord	53.2%	74.8%	−21.7 pp	1.88

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Cambuur to score	76.8%	55.7%	+21.1 pp	1.30
SC Cambuur not to score	23.2%	44.3%	−21.1 pp	4.31
Feyenoord to score	89.2%	91.3%	−2.1 pp	1.12
Feyenoord not to score	10.8%	8.7%	+2.1 pp	9.29
Both teams to score	69.8%	52.0%	+17.8 pp	1.43
Both teams not to score	30.2%	48.0%	−17.8 pp	3.31
SC Cambuur 2+ goals	40.0%	20.8%	+19.2 pp	2.50
SC Cambuur at most 1 goal	60.0%	79.2%	−19.2 pp	1.67
Feyenoord 2+ goals	63.2%	73.1%	−9.9 pp	1.58
Feyenoord at most 1 goal	36.8%	26.9%	+9.9 pp	2.72
Over 1.5 goals	88.8%	85.4%	+3.3 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.2%	14.6%	−3.3 pp	8.89
Over 2.5 goals	68.4%	67.3%	+1.1 pp	1.46
Under 2.5 goals	31.6%	32.7%	−1.1 pp	3.16

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Cambuur sample: 2 matches
Feyenoord sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

SC Cambuur has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.