Fantasy Premier League

Differentials worth owning

A player nobody owns is not a differential on his own — most of them are players nobody owns for a reason. Every row here clears an ownership threshold and a minutes floor, is ranked on the model's own currency, and says how much of its edge is the projection and how much is only the field's absence.

The field's biggest blind spot

Bobby Thomas

DEF · COV · 4.0m · owned by 8.5%

+3.39

Edge

That is 13.6 projected points over the next 5 rounds, which is what the board under it is ranked on.

Gameweek 6 · 5-round window · feed of 01/10 11:39

Bobby Thomas is the best-projected player in the game owned by under 10%: 13.6 over 5 rounds at 4.0m, held by 8.5%.

Against Riccardo Calafiori, the most-owned player in his position at 51%, +0.69 of his edge is projection and +2.70 is the field he is not in — so 20% of the case for him is football rather than ownership.

Own

8.5%

The share of managers holding him, against the 10% gate this board opens at.

Proj edge

+0.69

What the model rates him over the most-owned player in his position. Positive is football; negative means the only case for him is that nobody owns him.

Own edge

+2.70

What the field's absence is worth at what the template is worth. The two halves add up to his whole edge.

What the minutes floor took

26 low-owned players are left off because the minutes model puts them under 45% to start.

See the minutes board →

The top five on this board

The board as your controls leave it — the same five that open the table below.

Ranked 1 Bobby Thomas

DEF COV vs

13.6 Ahead

Own

8.5%

Proj edge

+0.69

Own edge

+2.70

Against Riccardo Calafiori
3.0
1. NEW (H)
2. TOT (A)
3. FUL (H)
4. SUN (H)
5. EVE (A)
Ranked 2 António Silva

DEF BOU vs

13.2 Ahead

Own

0.4%

Proj edge

+0.33

Own edge

+3.23

Against Riccardo Calafiori
3.0
1. CHE (A)
2. SUN (H)
3. MUN (A)
4. LEE (H)
5. IPS (A)
Ranked 3 John Egan

DEF HUL vs

12.8 Ahead

Own

7.0%

Proj edge

−0.06

Own edge

+2.80

Against Riccardo Calafiori
3.2
1. EVE (H)
2. FUL (A)
3. BRE (H)
4. IPS (H)
5. ARS (A)
Ranked 4 Tarik Muharemović

DEF LEE vs

12.5 Ahead

Own

4.3%

Proj edge

−0.37

Own edge

+2.98

Against Riccardo Calafiori
3.6
1. ARS (A)
2. MUN (H)
3. SUN (A)
4. BOU (A)
5. TOT (H)
Ranked 5 Murillo

DEF NFO vs

12.3 Ahead

Own

2.1%

Proj edge

−0.62

Own edge

+3.12

Against Riccardo Calafiori
3.0
1. CRY (A)
2. ARS (H)
3. IPS (A)
4. BRE (A)
5. MCI (H)

Position

All GKP DEF MID FWD

Owned by under

10% 7% 5% 3%

Minutes played

Any 90+ 270+ 450+ 900+

At least

Any Very safe Safe Rotation risk

Rounds ahead

3 rounds 5 rounds 8 rounds

Price

Enter your squad to mark what you already own and what you could afford →

Showing 40 of 71 players 71 of 487 match your filters Clear filters

Player Price Pts Ahead Own Proj edge Own edge Start Next fixtures

1 Bobby Thomas DEF vs COV 4.0m 4.4 13.6 8.5% +0.69 +2.70 92%

NEW (H)
TOT (A)
FUL (H)
SUN (H)
EVE (A)

1 Bobby Thomas 13.6

DEF vs COV · 4.0m · 8.5% 92%

Proj edge: +0.69
Own edge: +2.70
Pts: 4.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NEW (H)
TOT (A)
FUL (H)
SUN (H)
EVE (A)

2 António Silva DEF vs BOU 5.0m 3.8 13.2 0.4% +0.33 +3.23 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)

2 António Silva 13.2

DEF vs BOU · 5.0m · 0.4% 92%

Proj edge: +0.33
Own edge: +3.23
Pts: 3.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)

3 John Egan DEF vs HUL 4.1m 4.0 12.8 7.0% −0.06 +2.80 92%

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)

3 John Egan 12.8

DEF vs HUL · 4.1m · 7.0% 92%

Proj edge: −0.06
Own edge: +2.80
Pts: 4.0

Against Riccardo Calafiori

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)

4 Tarik Muharemović DEF vs LEE 5.0m 3.5 12.5 4.3% −0.37 +2.98 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)

4 Tarik Muharemović 12.5

DEF vs LEE · 5.0m · 4.3% 92%

Proj edge: −0.37
Own edge: +2.98
Pts: 3.5

Against Riccardo Calafiori

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)

5 Murillo DEF vs NFO 5.5m 3.8 12.3 2.1% −0.62 +3.12 92%

CRY (A)
ARS (H)
IPS (A)
BRE (A)
MCI (H)

5 Murillo 12.3

DEF vs NFO · 5.5m · 2.1% 92%

Proj edge: −0.62
Own edge: +3.12
Pts: 3.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CRY (A)
ARS (H)
IPS (A)
BRE (A)
MCI (H)

6 Chris Richards DEF vs CRY 4.9m 3.8 12.0 0.6% −0.85 +3.21 92%

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

6 Chris Richards 12.0

DEF vs CRY · 4.9m · 0.6% 92%

Proj edge: −0.85
Own edge: +3.21
Pts: 3.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

7 Jarrad Branthwaite DEF vs EVE 5.5m 3.6 12.0 2.4% −0.85 +3.10 92%

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)

7 Jarrad Branthwaite 12.0

DEF vs EVE · 5.5m · 2.4% 92%

Proj edge: −0.85
Own edge: +3.10
Pts: 3.6

Against Riccardo Calafiori

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)

8 Sven Botman DEF vs NEW 5.0m 3.5 11.9 0.7% −1.00 +3.21 92%

COV (A)
AVL (H)
CRY (A)
!
FUL (A)

8 Sven Botman 11.9

DEF vs NEW · 5.0m · 0.7% 92%

Proj edge: −1.00
Own edge: +3.21
Pts: 3.5

Against Riccardo Calafiori

COV (A)
AVL (H)
CRY (A)
!
FUL (A)

9 James Hill DEF vs BOU 5.5m 3.4 11.7 0.8% −1.15 +3.20 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)

9 James Hill 11.7

DEF vs BOU · 5.5m · 0.8% 92%

Proj edge: −1.15
Own edge: +3.20
Pts: 3.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)

10 Kristoffer Ajer DEF vs BRE 4.5m 3.4 11.5 3.9% −1.33 +3.00 92%

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)

10 Kristoffer Ajer 11.5

DEF vs BRE · 4.5m · 3.9% 92%

Proj edge: −1.33
Own edge: +3.00
Pts: 3.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

AVL (A)
LIV (H)
HUL (A)
NFO (H)
BHA (A)

11 James Justin DEF vs LEE 4.5m 3.2 11.4 1.4% −1.50 +3.16 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)

11 James Justin 11.4

DEF vs LEE · 4.5m · 1.4% 92%

Proj edge: −1.50
Own edge: +3.16
Pts: 3.2

Against Riccardo Calafiori

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)

12 Adrien Truffert DEF vs BOU 5.4m 3.3 11.3 3.0% −1.53 +3.06 92%

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)

12 Adrien Truffert 11.3

DEF vs BOU · 5.4m · 3.0% 92%

Proj edge: −1.53
Own edge: +3.06
Pts: 3.3

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CHE (A)
SUN (H)
MUN (A)
LEE (H)
IPS (A)

13 Luka Vušković DEF vs BHA 5.0m 3.1 11.2 3.7% −1.67 +3.01 92%

SUN (A)
CRY (H)
LIV (A)
MCI (A)
BRE (H)

13 Luka Vušković 11.2

DEF vs BHA · 5.0m · 3.7% 92%

Proj edge: −1.67
Own edge: +3.01
Pts: 3.1

Against Riccardo Calafiori

SUN (A)
CRY (H)
LIV (A)
MCI (A)
BRE (H)

14 Nordi Mukiele DEF vs SUN 5.4m 3.2 11.1 1.9% −1.81 +3.13 75%

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)

14 Nordi Mukiele 11.1

DEF vs SUN · 5.4m · 1.9% 75%

Proj edge: −1.81
Own edge: +3.13
Pts: 3.2

Against Riccardo Calafiori

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)

15 Jay Dasilva DEF vs COV 4.0m 3.7 11.0 0.7% −1.86 +3.21 92%

NEW (H)
TOT (A)
FUL (H)
SUN (H)
EVE (A)

15 Jay Dasilva 11.0

DEF vs COV · 4.0m · 0.7% 92%

Proj edge: −1.86
Own edge: +3.21
Pts: 3.7

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NEW (H)
TOT (A)
FUL (H)
SUN (H)
EVE (A)

16 Dara O'Shea DEF vs IPS 4.0m 3.4 10.9 2.7% −1.99 +3.08 92%

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)

16 Dara O'Shea 10.9

DEF vs IPS · 4.0m · 2.7% 92%

Proj edge: −1.99
Own edge: +3.08
Pts: 3.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)

17 Leif Davis DEF vs IPS 4.0m 3.5 10.9 6.9% −1.95 +2.81 92%

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)

17 Leif Davis 10.9

DEF vs IPS · 4.0m · 6.9% 92%

Proj edge: −1.95
Own edge: +2.81
Pts: 3.5

Against Riccardo Calafiori

FUL (H)
MCI (A)
NFO (H)
HUL (A)
BOU (H)

18 Tyrick Mitchell DEF vs CRY 4.5m 3.4 10.8 6.1% −2.04 +2.86 92%

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

18 Tyrick Mitchell 10.8

DEF vs CRY · 4.5m · 6.1% 92%

Proj edge: −2.04
Own edge: +2.86
Pts: 3.4

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

19 Harry Maguire DEF vs MUN 4.8m 3.5 10.8 8.6% −2.04 +2.70 92%

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

19 Harry Maguire 10.8

DEF vs MUN · 4.8m · 8.6% 92%

Proj edge: −2.04
Own edge: +2.70
Pts: 3.5

Against Riccardo Calafiori

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

20 Vitalii Mykolenko DEF vs EVE 4.6m 3.1 10.5 4.2% −2.38 +2.98 92%

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)

20 Vitalii Mykolenko 10.5

DEF vs EVE · 4.6m · 4.2% 92%

Proj edge: −2.38
Own edge: +2.98
Pts: 3.1

Against Riccardo Calafiori

HUL (A)
CHE (H)
ARS (A)
!
COV (H)

21 Jeremy Jacquet DEF vs LIV 5.0m 3.0 10.3 3.5% −2.54 +3.03 92%

MCI (H)
BRE (A)
BHA (H)
ARS (H)
CRY (A)

21 Jeremy Jacquet 10.3

DEF vs LIV · 5.0m · 3.5% 92%

Proj edge: −2.54
Own edge: +3.03
Pts: 3.0

Against Riccardo Calafiori

MCI (H)
BRE (A)
BHA (H)
ARS (H)
CRY (A)

22 Malick Thiaw DEF vs NEW 5.0m 3.0 10.2 2.2% −2.70 +3.11 92%

COV (A)
AVL (H)
CRY (A)
!
FUL (A)

22 Malick Thiaw 10.2

DEF vs NEW · 5.0m · 2.2% 92%

Proj edge: −2.70
Own edge: +3.11
Pts: 3.0

Against Riccardo Calafiori

COV (A)
AVL (H)
CRY (A)
!
FUL (A)

23 Neco Williams DEF vs NFO 5.0m 3.1 10.1 8.7% −2.63 +2.69 92%

CRY (A)
ARS (H)
IPS (A)
BRE (A)
MCI (H)

23 Neco Williams 10.1

DEF vs NFO · 5.0m · 8.7% 92%

Proj edge: −2.63
Own edge: +2.69
Pts: 3.1

Against Riccardo Calafiori

CRY (A)
ARS (H)
IPS (A)
BRE (A)
MCI (H)

24 Jayden Bogle DEF vs LEE 4.6m 2.8 10.1 7.2% −2.71 +2.79 92%

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)

24 Jayden Bogle 10.1

DEF vs LEE · 4.6m · 7.2% 92%

Proj edge: −2.71
Own edge: +2.79
Pts: 2.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

ARS (A)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)
BOU (A)
TOT (H)

25 Timothy Castagne DEF vs FUL 4.5m 2.7 10.0 0.9% −2.84 +3.19 92%

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)

25 Timothy Castagne 10.0

DEF vs FUL · 4.5m · 0.9% 92%

Proj edge: −2.84
Own edge: +3.19
Pts: 2.7

Against Riccardo Calafiori

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)

26 Antonee Robinson DEF vs FUL 4.5m 2.7 10.0 1.5% −2.85 +3.16 92%

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)

26 Antonee Robinson 10.0

DEF vs FUL · 4.5m · 1.5% 92%

Proj edge: −2.85
Own edge: +3.16
Pts: 2.7

Against Riccardo Calafiori

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)

27 Rúben Dias DEF vs MCI 5.5m 2.7 9.9 1.9% −2.95 +3.13 92%

LIV (A)
IPS (H)
AVL (A)
BHA (H)
NFO (A)

27 Rúben Dias 9.9

DEF vs MCI · 5.5m · 1.9% 92%

Proj edge: −2.95
Own edge: +3.13
Pts: 2.7

Against Riccardo Calafiori

LIV (A)
IPS (H)
AVL (A)
BHA (H)
NFO (A)

28 Thomas Meunier DEF vs SUN 4.5m 2.8 9.8 0.3% −3.05 +3.23 92%

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)

28 Thomas Meunier 9.8

DEF vs SUN · 4.5m · 0.3% 92%

Proj edge: −3.05
Own edge: +3.23
Pts: 2.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

BHA (H)
BOU (A)
LEE (H)
COV (A)
CHE (H)

29 Anan Khalaili DEF vs CRY 5.0m 3.1 9.8 0.3% −3.06 +3.23 75%

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

29 Anan Khalaili 9.8

DEF vs CRY · 5.0m · 0.3% 75%

Proj edge: −3.06
Own edge: +3.23
Pts: 3.1

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

30 Maxence Lacroix DEF vs CHE 5.9m 3.0 9.8 6.8% −2.99 +2.81 75%

BOU (H)
EVE (A)
TOT (H)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)

30 Maxence Lacroix 9.8

DEF vs CHE · 5.9m · 6.8% 75%

Proj edge: −2.99
Own edge: +2.81
Pts: 3.0

Against Riccardo Calafiori

BOU (H)
EVE (A)
TOT (H)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)

31 Ryan Giles DEF vs HUL 4.0m 3.1 9.6 2.9% −3.19 +3.07 92%

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)

31 Ryan Giles 9.6

DEF vs HUL · 4.0m · 2.9% 92%

Proj edge: −3.19
Own edge: +3.07
Pts: 3.1

Against Riccardo Calafiori

EVE (H)
FUL (A)
BRE (H)
IPS (H)
ARS (A)

32 Calvin Bassey DEF vs FUL 4.5m 2.6 9.6 0.7% −3.24 +3.21 92%

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)

32 Calvin Bassey 9.6

DEF vs FUL · 4.5m · 0.7% 92%

Proj edge: −3.24
Own edge: +3.21
Pts: 2.6

Against Riccardo Calafiori

IPS (A)
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (A)
NEW (H)

33 Wesley Fofana DEF vs CHE 5.0m 2.9 9.3 0.2% −3.57 +3.24 75%

BOU (H)
EVE (A)
TOT (H)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)

33 Wesley Fofana 9.3

DEF vs CHE · 5.0m · 0.2% 75%

Proj edge: −3.57
Own edge: +3.24
Pts: 2.9

Against Riccardo Calafiori

BOU (H)
EVE (A)
TOT (H)
MUN (H)
SUN (A)

34 Victor Lindelöf DEF vs AVL 4.5m 2.9 9.2 0.3% −3.65 +3.23 92%

BRE (H)
NEW (A)
MCI (H)
FUL (H)
MUN (A)

34 Victor Lindelöf 9.2

DEF vs AVL · 4.5m · 0.3% 92%

Proj edge: −3.65
Own edge: +3.23
Pts: 2.9

Against Riccardo Calafiori

BRE (H)
NEW (A)
MCI (H)
FUL (H)
MUN (A)

35 Olivier Boscagli DEF vs BHA 4.5m 2.5 9.1 0.3% −3.82 +3.23 92%

SUN (A)
CRY (H)
LIV (A)
MCI (A)
BRE (H)

35 Olivier Boscagli 9.1

DEF vs BHA · 4.5m · 0.3% 92%

Proj edge: −3.82
Own edge: +3.23
Pts: 2.5

Against Riccardo Calafiori

SUN (A)
CRY (H)
LIV (A)
MCI (A)
BRE (H)

36 Micky van de Ven DEF vs TOT 5.0m 2.2 9.0 3.8% −3.83 +3.01 75%

MUN (A)
COV (H)
CHE (A)
CRY (H)
LEE (A)

36 Micky van de Ven 9.0

DEF vs TOT · 5.0m · 3.8% 75%

Proj edge: −3.83
Own edge: +3.01
Pts: 2.2

Against Riccardo Calafiori

MUN (A)
COV (H)
CHE (A)
CRY (H)
LEE (A)

37 Lisandro Martínez DEF vs MUN 5.0m 2.9 9.0 1.3% −3.88 +3.17 75%

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

37 Lisandro Martínez 9.0

DEF vs MUN · 5.0m · 1.3% 75%

Proj edge: −3.88
Own edge: +3.17
Pts: 2.9

Against Riccardo Calafiori

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

38 Luke Shaw DEF vs MUN 4.3m 2.9 8.8 7.7% −3.95 +2.76 75%

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

38 Luke Shaw 8.8

DEF vs MUN · 4.3m · 7.7% 75%

Proj edge: −3.95
Own edge: +2.76
Pts: 2.9

Against Riccardo Calafiori

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

39 Diogo Dalot DEF vs MUN 4.9m 2.8 8.7 1.6% −4.16 +3.15 75%

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

39 Diogo Dalot 8.7

DEF vs MUN · 4.9m · 1.6% 75%

Proj edge: −4.16
Own edge: +3.15
Pts: 2.8

Against Riccardo Calafiori

TOT (H)
LEE (A)
BOU (H)
CHE (A)
AVL (H)

40 Jaydee Canvot DEF vs CRY 4.8m 2.7 8.4 0.2% −4.46 +3.24 75%

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

40 Jaydee Canvot 8.4

DEF vs CRY · 4.8m · 0.2% 75%

Proj edge: −4.46
Own edge: +3.24
Pts: 2.7

Against Riccardo Calafiori

NFO (H)
BHA (A)
NEW (H)
TOT (A)
LIV (H)

each row's Ahead, drawn to scale every bar on one axis of 0 to 20

What an edge is here, and what it is measured against

Every row is owned by under 10% of the game. The threshold is the page's premise rather than a sort: the ranking under it is the weighted score for the rounds ahead, which is a unit this model is measured in.

The two edge columns are one figure split in two, under the rule this app already trades points against ownership by — points times one minus 0.5 times ownership, which is the captain shortlist's own aggressive setting. They add up to the whole edge exactly, so a reader can check the pair rather than trust it.

The template is the most-owned player the game has in that position, taken off the whole board rather than off the filtered rows — a differential is measured against the field, not against the least contrarian row left on the screen. A position the game has published nobody's ownership for has no template, and both columns print a dash rather than a nought.

The minutes floor is the projection's own start probability at 45%. It is the largest way a list like this goes wrong, so it is a gate rather than a column — and nothing on this site backtests the ownership half of the split.

A player the game has published no ownership figure for is left off rather than counted as owned by nobody. Missing is not nought, and the one place that mistake does the most damage is a board about ownership.

Every ranking here is in expected points or in the weighted score for the rounds ahead, which are the units this model is measured in. The value column is those figures restated over a price — it is a way of scanning the board, and nothing on this site backtests it.

Bonus points are projected nowhere on this site, so they are in none of these figures.

The board is every player the game would let you field, the flagged included — whether a doubtful player is worth picking is a judgement the projection makes with his published chance of playing, not one made by hiding him.

What is measured here, and what is not

Measured The projected points

Replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. Recorded Sunday, 6 September 2026 and refreshed by hand, so the date is part of the claim.