Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeGNK Dinamo Zagreb 1:0 HNK Gorica
GNK Dinamo Zagreb were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 69%. They won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 28' Dion Drena Beljo GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.68 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 69% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- HNK Gorica
- 8%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 11
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.94
- 0.53
- Set-piece xG
- 0.15
- 0.26
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.09 for GNK Dinamo Zagreb.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.88 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- HNK Gorica
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.18 xG created 0.64 xGA
- W 2.06 created, 0.74 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- D 0.82 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- W 2.64 created, 0.49 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- W 3.38 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Rudeš
- W 2.10 created, 0.42 conceded against NK Varaždin
- D 2.06 created, 0.84 conceded against NK Istra 1961
0.81 xG created 1.32 xGA
- L 0.14 created, 1.40 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- L 0.82 created, 2.70 conceded against NK Osijek
- L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L 1.27 created, 1.20 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- L 0.93 created, 1.07 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- D 0.15 created, 0.40 conceded against HNK Rijeka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 7.50 | +74.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +55.2% | Won |
| HNK Gorica to win | 19.00 | +53.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +47.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 68.7% | 82.7% | −14.0 pp | 1.46 |
| Draw | 23.2% | 12.4% | +10.8 pp | 4.31 |
| HNK Gorica | 8.1% | 4.9% | +3.2 pp | 12.34 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 44.3% | −2.3 pp | 2.38 |
| Both teams not to score | 58.1% | 55.7% | +2.3 pp | 1.72 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | 84.2% | −10.1 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 15.8% | +10.1 pp | 3.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 65.2% | −19.9 pp | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 34.8% | +19.9 pp | 1.83 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Gorica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.