GNK Dinamo Zagreb 3:1 NK Varaždin: xG & match report · HNL

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · HNL

GNK Dinamo Zagreb Home 2.10 xG · 21 shots

NK Varaždin Away 0.42 xG · 6 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

GNK Dinamo Zagreb were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was GNK Dinamo Zagreb's attack: 2.10 xG against 1.49 projected (+0.61). NK Varaždin produced 0.42 xG against 0.76 projected (−0.34).

Goals

28' Mario Mladenovski NK Varaždin · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
57' Dion Drena Beljo GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
68' Niko Galešić GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.23 xG chance 2–1
90' Robert Mudražija GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 0.20 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 53% What happened
Draw: 30%
NK Varaždin: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1.49 2.10 +0.61

NK Varaždin 0.76 0.42 -0.34

GNK Dinamo Zagreb produced 0.61 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

GNK Dinamo Zagreb NK Varaždin

Shots: 21; 6
On target: 11; 1
Inside the box: 13; 3
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.70; 0.31
Set-piece xG: 0.41; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.10 for GNK Dinamo Zagreb.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.53 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

GNK Dinamo Zagreb
NK Varaždin
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

1.97 xG created 0.66 xGA

W 0.41 created, 1.12 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.53 created, 0.26 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.06 created, 0.74 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
D 0.82 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 2.64 created, 0.49 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 3.38 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Rudeš

NK Varaždin

1.78 xG created 0.70 xGA

D 0.75 created, 0.29 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 1.74 created, 0.70 conceded against HNK Vukovar 1991
W 3.05 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 0.90 created, 1.16 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.49 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 1.75 created, 0.72 conceded against HNK Rijeka

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 3 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on GNK Dinamo Zagreb against NK Varaždin before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	9.00	+80.3%	Lost
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	2.75	+51.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+50.6%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+43.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+42.1%	Lost
NK Varaždin to win	6.50	+5.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
GNK Dinamo Zagreb	53.5%	67.3%	−13.8 pp	1.87
Draw	30.3%	18.9%	+11.4 pp	3.30
NK Varaždin	16.2%	13.8%	+2.4 pp	6.17

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
GNK Dinamo Zagreb to score	80.0%	89.4%	−9.4 pp	1.25
GNK Dinamo Zagreb not to score	20.0%	10.6%	+9.4 pp	4.99
NK Varaždin to score	56.3%	55.7%	+0.5 pp	1.78
NK Varaždin not to score	43.7%	44.3%	−0.5 pp	2.29
Both teams to score	46.8%	50.0%	−3.2 pp	2.14
Both teams not to score	53.2%	50.0%	+3.2 pp	1.88
GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals	45.0%	66.3%	−21.2 pp	2.22
GNK Dinamo Zagreb at most 1 goal	55.0%	33.7%	+21.2 pp	1.82
NK Varaždin 2+ goals	16.9%	21.7%	−4.7 pp	5.90
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	83.1%	78.3%	+4.7 pp	1.20
Over 1.5 goals	69.9%	81.1%	−11.2 pp	1.43
Under 1.5 goals	30.1%	18.9%	+11.2 pp	3.32
Over 2.5 goals	39.5%	59.9%	−20.4 pp	2.53
Under 2.5 goals	60.5%	40.1%	+20.4 pp	1.65

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample: 20 matches
NK Varaždin sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.