xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Varaždin expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

NK Varaždin's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Varaždin xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.41 xG per match
#6/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
11.30 8 matches
Defence
0.88 xGA per match
#3/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
7.03 8 matches
xG difference
+0.53 xGD per match
#4/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
+4.27 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.80 xPts per match
#4/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
14.43 vs 15 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

NK Varaždin's underlying numbers are among the best in HNL. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.53 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 13 goals are 1.70 above 11.30 xG, while 15 points are 0.57 above 14.43 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.43 xG from penalties
13 11.30 +1.70 scored 1.70 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 7.03 -0.03 conceded 0.03 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
15 14.43 +0.57 0.57 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Varaždin are 1.70 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +3.51, against NK Rudeš on Sat 29/08.

Goals
13
xG
11.30
Gap
+1.70
Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Fri 04/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +1.10 +2.61 +2.86 +3.44 +3.51 +2.06 +2.51 +1.70 +1.10 +1.51 +0.25 +0.58 +0.07 -1.45 +0.45 -0.81 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Varaždin: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 02/08 HNK Hajduk Split 2 0.90 +1.10 +1.10
Sun 09/08 NK Slaven Belupo 4 2.49 +1.51 +2.61
Sun 16/08 HNK Rijeka 2 1.75 +0.25 +2.86
Sat 22/08 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1 0.42 +0.58 +3.44
Sat 29/08 NK Rudeš 2 1.93 +0.07 +3.51
Fri 04/09 NK Istra 1961 0 1.45 -1.45 +2.06
Mon 14/09 HNK Gorica 2 1.55 +0.45 +2.51
Sat 19/09 NK Osijek 0 0.81 -0.81 +1.70

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

NK Varaždin xG trend

Current form +0.28 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 7 of 8 matches. The only negative was against GNK Dinamo Zagreb on Sat 22/08 (-1.68).

npxG · last 6
1.08
npxGA · last 6
0.80
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.50 Sun 02/08 +1.54 Sun 09/08 +0.24 Sun 16/08 -1.68 Sat 22/08 +0.78 Sat 29/08 +1.15 Fri 04/09 +0.96 Mon 14/09 +0.25 Sat 19/09 +0.47 season avg
NK Varaždin: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 02/08 HNK Hajduk Split 0.90 0.40 +0.50 +0.50
Sun 09/08 NK Slaven Belupo 2.49 0.95 +1.54 +1.02
Sun 16/08 HNK Rijeka 0.96 0.72 +0.24 +0.76
Sat 22/08 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.42 2.10 -1.68 +0.15
Sat 29/08 NK Rudeš 1.14 0.36 +0.78 +0.28
Fri 04/09 NK Istra 1961 1.45 0.30 +1.15 +0.42
Mon 14/09 HNK Gorica 1.67 0.71 +0.96 +0.50
Sat 19/09 NK Osijek 0.84 0.59 +0.25 +0.47

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.23 npxG and 0.77 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
tied number 5 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 10

  1. NK Osijek Home +0.18
  2. HNK Gorica Away −0.34
  3. NK Istra 1961 Home −0.20
  4. NK Rudeš Home −0.51
  5. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.52
  6. HNK Rijeka Home +0.55
  7. NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.33
  8. HNK Hajduk Split Home +0.38

Last 5

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 5 hardest of 10

  1. NK Osijek Home +0.18
  2. HNK Gorica Away −0.34
  3. NK Istra 1961 Home −0.20
  4. NK Rudeš Home −0.51
  5. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.52

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Varaždin shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. NK Varaždin take 14.1 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #5 in HNL for volume and #5 for quality. 65% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.1 shots per match
#5/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
113 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#5/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
9.87 npxG from 113 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.1 shots per match
#4/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
97 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.06 npxGA per shot
#1/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
6.13 npxGA from 97 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

65% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 73 of 113 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

47% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 46 of 97 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.4 of 9.9 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 1.7 of 6.1 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

NK Varaždin home and away xG

NK Varaždin per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 3
xG / match 1.37 1.49
xGA / match 0.63 1.30
xGD / match +0.74 +0.19
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.97 1.53

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Varaždin match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
8
xG / match
1.41
xGA / match
0.88
xGD / match
+0.53
Points
15 of 24
  1. Sat 19/09 NK Osijek H xG 0.81 xGA 0.59 xGD +0.22
  2. Mon 14/09 HNK Gorica A xG 1.55 xGA 0.85 xGD +0.70
  3. Fri 04/09 NK Istra 1961 H xG 1.45 xGA 0.30 xGD +1.15
  4. Sat 29/08 NK Rudeš H Best underlying xG 1.93 P xGA 0.36 xGD +1.57
  5. Sat 22/08 GNK Dinamo Zagreb A Weakest underlying xG 0.42 xGA 2.10 xGD -1.68
  6. Sun 16/08 HNK Rijeka H xG 1.75 P xGA 0.72 xGD +1.03
  7. Sun 09/08 NK Slaven Belupo A xG 2.49 xGA 0.95 xGD +1.54
  8. Sun 02/08 HNK Hajduk Split H xG 0.90 xGA 1.16 P xGD -0.26

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Varaždin in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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