Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeNK Varaždin 0:0 NK Istra 1961
NK Varaždin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was NK Istra 1961's attack: 0.30 xG against 0.99 projected (−0.69).
The model against the result
- NK Varaždin
- 46%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- NK Istra 1961
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NK Istra 1961 produced 0.69 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 9
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 14
- 0
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.03
- Open play xG
- 0.93
- 0.26
- Set-piece xG
- 0.53
- 0.03
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.45 for NK Varaždin and 0.30 for NK Istra 1961.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 1.75 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- NK Varaždin
- NK Istra 1961
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.76 xG created 0.95 xGA
- W 3.05 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Istra 1961
- W 0.90 created, 1.16 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- W 2.49 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- W 1.75 created, 0.72 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- L 0.42 created, 2.10 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- W 1.93 created, 0.36 conceded against NK Rudeš
1.43 xG created 1.70 xGA
- L 0.40 created, 3.05 conceded against NK Varaždin
- L 2.35 created, 1.16 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D 0.94 created, 1.67 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
- W 2.85 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- L 1.19 created, 1.95 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- D 0.84 created, 2.06 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +16.2% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +12.7% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +5.3% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 2.20 | +2.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Varaždin | 46.0% | 51.2% | −5.2 pp | 2.17 |
| Draw | 31.0% | 26.4% | +4.6 pp | 3.23 |
| NK Istra 1961 | 23.0% | 22.4% | +0.6 pp | 4.34 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 57.7% | −4.1 pp | 1.87 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.4% | 42.3% | +4.1 pp | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | 78.3% | −4.3 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 21.7% | +4.3 pp | 3.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 55.3% | −10.6 pp | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 44.7% | +10.6 pp | 1.81 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Varaždin sample
- 20 matches
- NK Istra 1961 sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.